Effect of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Ethiopia

Effect of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Effect of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Ethiopia Girum Dagne Fetene, Yismaw Ayelign Mengistu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the effect of export diversification on growth. The study applied an extended Cobb-Douglas production function model using data sourced from the World Bank Indicator database, ranging from 1994 to 2024. The ARDL model was applied to examine the short-run and long-run effects of export diversification on economic growth; besides this, to ensure directional causality, the Granger causality test was conducted. The result revealed that in both the short run and the long run, export diversification has a positive and significant effect on growth. Besides this, the result showed that in the long run gross capital formation and real effective exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between growth and export diversification. Based on the findings, the study suggests a multifaceted policy strategy to shift Ethiopia's agricultural export industry away from reliance on raw commodities to a more competitive, diversified, and value-added structure. Export diversification Economic growth ARDL ECM Ethiopia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 19 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 02 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 17 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 07 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 07 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 31 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 31 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8447625","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":572692433,"identity":"a4a1bba7-8ecc-44ce-8f66-f015a06df428","order_by":0,"name":"Girum Dagne Fetene","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZgTJ+ABI8ID5PERqYTZA0YJXG1QLmwScj0+LvDvvM6kbDNby8tHNxyp+7qmTMbjdwPjgbRuDnD0OLYaH2c2kcxjSDTfeOZZ2s+fZYR6DOweYDee2MRjjssWwmY0NqOUw48YZOWY3eA4c4DG4kcAmzdvGkNhDQIv9xhn53wr/HKgDaWH/DdRSj0uLPDNES+J8iRw2Zp4DzGBbmIFaEnA5zICZjdk6xyA9eYNEmrG0zIHDPJI3Epsl55yTMOw5gMOW/mOMt3MqrG3nz0h++PHNgTp7vhvJBz+8KbORZ2/AYQvYKAMYAwwYQWolsCoH29KAzhgFo2AUjIJRgA4ATOFQkvwXj6UAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Arsi University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Girum","middleName":"Dagne","lastName":"Fetene","suffix":""},{"id":572692434,"identity":"84f445c9-7ea3-4f71-81fa-f432dfea0c37","order_by":1,"name":"Yismaw Ayelign Mengistu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Debre Tabor University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yismaw","middleName":"Ayelign","lastName":"Mengistu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-25 08:38:27","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100367407,"identity":"2d46223a-6eca-4428-a760-62e48aa527d6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:02","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":17022,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/aab134e209640b217c239528.docx"},{"id":100135832,"identity":"f87b03aa-6b0f-4560-8a02-173760dfdc11","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":93922,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ReArticle.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/ae0a66941288bbd551203f95.docx"},{"id":100135819,"identity":"4e568226-61a2-40a8-b345-7f10b31a2eb3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":18480,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/d0faea827a7a2b36db40b664.docx"},{"id":100135825,"identity":"e028d153-cae2-4b33-bbce-37716410c035","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"json","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3833,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"01b02b1a63564a45ab2fc42c34a034ab.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/059ba00d05710efd89b458fc.json"},{"id":100366579,"identity":"e7920b43-7add-4d68-b524-445b6b0837a4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:22","extension":"xml","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":128595,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"01b02b1a63564a45ab2fc42c34a034ab1enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/139ccdf70eca38ddd91f2bb2.xml"},{"id":100366531,"identity":"a4d8f517-4c61-4534-9d72-9145cb7fc235","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:20","extension":"wmf","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1930,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/46dcf64a497c8f508fcdd912.wmf"},{"id":100135820,"identity":"9521bf2a-81ce-4fbd-b7b6-c28d5aebecc7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2008,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/55d88657a16e1b85ae497a6b.wmf"},{"id":100135823,"identity":"e785bc4e-e5ac-4c6c-9c16-83ee28b52720","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1306,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/dff5ae04889cf0db32fc71d7.wmf"},{"id":100366605,"identity":"62e69765-373e-41d1-a86e-b495d32c2783","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:23","extension":"wmf","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2324,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/433096ab858cd5d96a5bc0da.wmf"},{"id":100366783,"identity":"3311227b-9509-41e1-80cd-f2414e927438","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:32","extension":"wmf","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6618,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/c7307428954c14b38e30b2c1.wmf"},{"id":100367761,"identity":"e17beec9-3021-4058-acb6-f32e95e94303","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:16","extension":"wmf","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4694,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/8d240dde94da0da55d02f007.wmf"},{"id":100368203,"identity":"f4f55f7a-ac12-4901-8c0c-5cf1f2d8bd39","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:42","extension":"wmf","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4788,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/844cfe85013cf58cb99fe30d.wmf"},{"id":100135837,"identity":"02385086-c9c8-4448-a684-0d25f6c90035","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1354,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/f2db279f5abb33b8ede94288.wmf"},{"id":100367053,"identity":"b112c258-9fd8-41f9-ab30-1d6ed9002779","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:45","extension":"wmf","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1900,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage9.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/e96b18ba045de3cab48d532a.wmf"},{"id":100135839,"identity":"231d673e-63de-4fd2-bcc1-dc41b3428bb8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1930,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/bcf163d70489adab5c8a50ca.wmf"},{"id":100135827,"identity":"a9a88db7-c1bd-427b-842a-471c6f1fc2cc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2008,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/5737745d5390e5fcdcdd0fec.wmf"},{"id":100366600,"identity":"60dcaf4b-f847-4bdf-bb32-c84c6e49624f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:23","extension":"wmf","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1306,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/c60e5019c5468301a35bb6d7.wmf"},{"id":100135841,"identity":"8c6d38a2-0f84-45c6-bfe2-0b4af74d19ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2324,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/8c83a9391fb4c0601bf64df4.wmf"},{"id":100366567,"identity":"67dc40fc-d9fd-4b63-84bd-dfab4184f95a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:21","extension":"wmf","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6618,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/a0d528556f9661d559603aa8.wmf"},{"id":100367445,"identity":"e4601bfc-1b52-460e-baec-014e9cf9563d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:04","extension":"wmf","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4694,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/5392c8a10c30633b2064ad2d.wmf"},{"id":100366507,"identity":"0a63eccf-b6c4-4487-ba0a-cf938f7f6eba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:19","extension":"wmf","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4788,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/fe3349518a6d4ddc00c382f1.wmf"},{"id":100135848,"identity":"cd282373-5007-4b8e-8e41-d318c1d5dc3b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"wmf","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1354,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/a789f7c206852eacd7c3c085.wmf"},{"id":100367995,"identity":"6ccd6332-24b1-402c-94e9-bc885d63bfb3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:30","extension":"wmf","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1900,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage9.wmf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/145e2f952590cbc5f414f67a.wmf"},{"id":100135855,"identity":"a4595936-51d4-4d61-89b7-71d267da1e30","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":25,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1381,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/04df290a10b4cfdad6a714b0.png"},{"id":100366545,"identity":"01e5eb90-1378-4bab-8b09-5ab6d05854da","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:20","extension":"png","order_by":26,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1654,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/7ac839ebe12d881c7b36b1a8.png"},{"id":100367161,"identity":"0188e05e-08bb-4b9d-ab08-1ed5b52a5798","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:48","extension":"png","order_by":27,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":795,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/6acdd8914193083b84b2cb49.png"},{"id":100367932,"identity":"75055e89-149d-4de6-ae34-71f930e4b81e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:27","extension":"png","order_by":28,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2808,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/4083ac663e5db3f950a0ebd4.png"},{"id":100366656,"identity":"14d5b142-af99-4783-b25e-782865c9ee27","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:26","extension":"png","order_by":29,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":8201,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/7eda7c743a198b495806eda6.png"},{"id":100135845,"identity":"8e8ec87c-278d-460f-86fa-c0c36d7ad136","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":30,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5212,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/2a7aba55a9a1414a169ba267.png"},{"id":100135849,"identity":"c00785ae-4f93-47f0-af1e-333745383034","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":31,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5629,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/a18455b45d694280da7d8828.png"},{"id":100135857,"identity":"d9a19617-8718-4c34-b0b0-0be215e45b9a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":32,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1910,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/de39d0335edf7afaabe61006.png"},{"id":100367382,"identity":"9a1c5d9a-e2d1-42c5-aeb5-6f46e1c4ba87","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:02","extension":"png","order_by":33,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1589,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/1ce78fa780256d0e17063df6.png"},{"id":100367810,"identity":"ca301cf7-6f87-489e-bd2f-05cadb6bfce0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:21","extension":"png","order_by":34,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1381,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/264945ff40b78f9d16ed4087.png"},{"id":100135851,"identity":"69ff7c26-50c1-44d6-8568-055e23a2d534","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":35,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1654,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/3c36ebc9341dff6814c0d39e.png"},{"id":100367716,"identity":"ab60d9c7-9cf3-4277-8910-3c25a2d60e16","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:57:14","extension":"png","order_by":36,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":795,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/db2e24f88367743fd6cf1004.png"},{"id":100135856,"identity":"8251965d-4182-46a8-9b59-6504cffd5117","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":37,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2808,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/81f48dd3b232a78d80ccd6b3.png"},{"id":100135852,"identity":"2571eb91-fec1-4b8a-870a-d6612f22aad9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":38,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":8201,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/c575d04184b0df52713ea46d.png"},{"id":100135854,"identity":"dc007877-c2e3-422b-a4e2-f52253e05208","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":39,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5212,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/2fb2420566e84bbc976a12e8.png"},{"id":100135861,"identity":"1d892701-ab67-4717-b6d3-51863c97a5e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:09","extension":"png","order_by":40,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":5629,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/146abd4746bb4f9873a2a8fd.png"},{"id":100135859,"identity":"6f37905a-ce4e-488e-9c98-8045a5cd4bef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"png","order_by":41,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1910,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/91f84863ac8d20ffe753ce60.png"},{"id":100366639,"identity":"0cacc33b-91f0-4505-b19d-4ba524881b8c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:25","extension":"png","order_by":42,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1589,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/e5e0f50f012621a80cebc0a5.png"},{"id":100135862,"identity":"37b8690f-dea3-4607-b89b-a6318e0d5ad4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:09","extension":"xml","order_by":43,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":127678,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"01b02b1a63564a45ab2fc42c34a034ab1structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/b861c83a38ebb9a7672cf251.xml"},{"id":100135858,"identity":"57d85b4a-1f39-4259-8e05-2b974bf60658","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-13 10:43:08","extension":"html","order_by":44,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":137326,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1/cffc444e2e0bf1f731545e0d.html"},{"id":100382373,"identity":"df4c9a25-5d16-4637-bd14-59234510fcae","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 10:42:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":559097,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ReArticle.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8447625/v1_covered_14a19c47-afb2-4491-9d6e-c4e5f93811c2.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Effect of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-global-society","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Global Society](https://www.springer.com/journal/44282)","snPcode":"44282","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44282/3","title":"Discover Global Society","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Export diversification, Economic growth, ARDL, ECM, Ethiopia","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the effect of export diversification on growth. The study applied an extended Cobb-Douglas production function model using data sourced from the World Bank Indicator database, ranging from 1994 to 2024. The ARDL model was applied to examine the short-run and long-run effects of export diversification on economic growth; besides this, to ensure directional causality, the Granger causality test was conducted. The result revealed that in both the short run and the long run, export diversification has a positive and significant effect on growth. Besides this, the result showed that in the long run gross capital formation and real effective exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between growth and export diversification. Based on the findings, the study suggests a multifaceted policy strategy to shift Ethiopia's agricultural export industry away from reliance on raw commodities to a more competitive, diversified, and value-added structure.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Effect of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-13 10:43:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8447625/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":1},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-19T06:40:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-02T09:52:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"237064566396580942932530671468673107427","date":"2026-02-25T12:10:44+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"50353423715319887302563248050462711006","date":"2026-02-24T06:23:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-17T06:30:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-13T14:13:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"187224657488185595149766561059992504227","date":"2026-02-13T13:45:53+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"254394785171317653657672490159004735432","date":"2026-02-13T13:27:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-09T07:17:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-07T06:52:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-01-07T06:48:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-31T07:22:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Global Society","date":"2025-12-31T07:17:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-global-society","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Global Society](https://www.springer.com/journal/44282)","snPcode":"44282","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44282/3","title":"Discover Global Society","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0b0f207d-c727-48d1-87bb-15f36f942b2d","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 13th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T11:53:36+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-13 10:43:03","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8447625","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8447625","identity":"rs-8447625","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}