Predictors of glycemic worsening in the next year in adults with screen-detected type 2 diabetes

Background and Aims Identifying simple markers of risk for worsening glucose can allow care providers to target therapeutic interventions according to risk of worsening glycemic control. We aimed to determine which routine clinical measures herald near-term glycemic worsening in early type 2 diabetes(T2D). Methods The Early Diabetes Intervention Program (EDIP) was a clinical trial in individuals with screen-detected T2D [HbA1C 6.3+0.63%(45+5mmol/mol)]. During the trial some participants experienced worsening fasting blood glucose (FBG). We investigated the time course of FBG, HbA1c, weight, and other clinical factors to determine which might herald glycemic worsening over the next year. Results Progressors (62/219, 28.5%) had higher FBG than non-progressors at baseline [118 vs 130mg/dL (6.6 vs 7.2 mmol/L), p=<0.001]. FBG was stable except in the year of progression, when progressors exhibited a large 1-year rise [mean change 14.2mg/dL(0.79 mmol/L)]. Current FBG and antecedent year change in FBG were associated with progression(p<0.01), although the magnitude of change was too small to be of clinical utility (0.19 mg/dL; 0.01 mmol/L). Current or antecedent year change in HbA1c, weight, TG or HDL were not associated with progression. In the year of glycemic worsening, rising glucose was strongly associated with a concurrent increase in weight (p<0.001). Conclusions Elevated FBG but not HbA1c identified individuals at risk for imminent glycemic worsening; the subsequent large rise in glucose was associated with a short-term increase in weight. Glucose and weight surveillance provide actionable information for those caring for patients with early diabetes. Highlights Recent change in fasting blood sugar is associated with near-term worsening of glycemia Changes in weight, insulin, HbA1C were not informative for anticipating near-term worsening of glycemia Increasing glucose was strongly associated with concurrent weight gain