Decoupling effect and influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Hainan Province,China

Decoupling effect and influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Hainan Province,China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Decoupling effect and influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Hainan Province,China Yongping Tang, Huiyuan Jiang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4112033/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Hainan, as the pioneering province in China to declare a comprehensive ban on the sale of petrol-driven automobiles by 2030, is actively propelling the low-carbon transformation of its transportation industry. Through the integration of the Tapio model and the LMDI method, an exhaustive analysis spanning the years 2006 to 2020 was conducted to scrutinize the decoupling dynamics and influencing factors between carbon emissions in Hainan's transportation industry and the concurrent trajectory of its economic development. The research has yielded noteworthy findings: (1) Total and per capita carbon emissions from transportation exhibit an initial phase of rapid ascent followed by a gradual deceleration, with carbon emissions from oil energy sources constituting an overwhelming 99%, where kerosene stands out as the primary contributor with the highest proportional increase; (2) The decoupling index exhibits an "M" curve trajectory, signifying an overarching trend of initial deterioration succeeded by subsequent improvement, reflecting an unstable decoupling status; (3) With the introduction of urbanization effects, positively driving factors include income urbanization effect, spatial urbanization effect, transportation intensity effect, and industrial structure effect. Conversely, negatively driving factors encompass energy intensity effect, population urbanization effect, and energy structure effect. Among these, the paramount factor propelling an increase in carbon emissions is income urbanization effect, while the paramount factor inhibiting carbon emissions is energy intensity effect. Finally, proposing policy recommendations. Carbon emissions Tapio model Decoupling effect LMDI decomposition Influencing factors Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4112033","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":293659120,"identity":"cfac32ac-c709-4a04-a82f-df74a69d3717","order_by":0,"name":"Yongping Tang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAwwMFjz25xsbHzA2gAUM8CrngWiRkGO4cbjZAKhFgigtQCBhzHAgvU2CKC32ErkHD/yokUhsbDjYVs2743AdA3vzNgmGmju4bZHISzjYc0wisZm5se0275nDEgw8x8okGI49w6Mlx+AwA5tEYhvDwbbbuW1ALRI5ZkAXHiag5Z9EYg9DYlsxWIv8GyK0MLZJGEsAtTBDbOEhoOXMu4SDvX0ScgYSB5ul/7alS7bxpBVbJBzDrYW9Pffwhx/fbHgM+NsffpzZZs3Pz354440PNbi1MAjkoAmwgYgE3BoYGPjP4JMdBaNgFIyCUQAEAGWtVUqfBiIUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1823-8707","institution":"Wuhan University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yongping","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""},{"id":293659121,"identity":"817e79dc-1129-4dec-9659-498359cf8e9b","order_by":1,"name":"Huiyuan Jiang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Huiyuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Jiang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-16 08:15:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4112033/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4112033/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":57008114,"identity":"818132f1-a1ee-4a9d-b924-b7913529ddf8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-23 10:33:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":758837,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptFile.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4112033/v1_covered_b513ed93-0419-4219-b55d-6b9e431d19bd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Decoupling effect and influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Hainan Province,China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Carbon emissions, Tapio model, Decoupling effect, LMDI decomposition, Influencing factors","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4112033/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4112033/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHainan, as the pioneering province in China to declare a comprehensive ban on the sale of petrol-driven automobiles by 2030, is actively propelling the low-carbon transformation of its transportation industry. Through the integration of the Tapio model and the LMDI method, an exhaustive analysis spanning the years 2006 to 2020 was conducted to scrutinize the decoupling dynamics and influencing factors between carbon emissions in Hainan's transportation industry and the concurrent trajectory of its economic development. 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Among these, the paramount factor propelling an increase in carbon emissions is income urbanization effect, while the paramount factor inhibiting carbon emissions is energy intensity effect. 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