Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Background To control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC). Object This study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes. Method: A simple susceptible–infected–recovery model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 25. The respective reproduction numbers were estimated before VECSC (R), during VECSC (R e ), and after VECSC (R a ). Results Results: suggest R before VECSC as 1.987 [1.908, 2.055], R e during VECSC as 1.122 [0.980, 1.260], and R a after VECSC as 3.086 [2.529, 3.739]. Discussion and Conclusion Results: demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but the value of R rose to exceed 2.5 after VECSC.