Agricultural Hotspots in India: Evidence from Paddy, Wheat, and Millets

Abstract We investigate seasonal yields at the district level of paddy, wheat, and millets in India from 2010 to 2019 to identify hot/coldspots for these major food grains. The analysis includes examining the contrast between hotspot maps of crop yield and historical weather deviation maps to provide insights into the clustering of crop yields. The findings reveal that the north and northeast states, as well as West Bengal in the east, experienced the least weather deviations, while the rest of India experienced significant weather anomalies. Paddy hotspots are concentrated in the north and southern regions and West Bengal in the east, while wheat hotspots are in the north and parts of the central and western regions. Millets are productive in the north-central, the south, and Gujarat in the west. In contrast, consistent coldspots for these major food grains are observed in Maharashtra in the west, the rest of the central and eastern regions, and the northeastern region. The analysis suggests that the approach of developing crop management techniques to mitigate weather anomalies by agricultural systems in hotspot States can benefit farmers in other regions in achieving their crop yield potentials. The results call for a deeper analysis of the factors driving regional crop yield convergence over space and time. JEL Codes: O13, O47, R11, Q18