Protesting when your life is on the line: Pathways to collective action in conflict-affected environments

Social psychological models propose that collective action is proximally motivated by group identification, moral outrage and collective efficacy. However, these pathways remain under-examined for high-risk protest and in populations affected by political violence, two crucial perspectives for addressing post-conflict challenges. Here we report preregistered tests in a large-scale, diverse population sample in Iraq (N=2148). Structural equation modelling revealed unsatisfactory fit for direct replications of two identity-based frameworks, but support for an adaptation in which moral outrage predicts protest intentions through increased rejection of outgroups and legitimization of political violence. This model is applied to examine two plausible antecedents of protest — exposure to violent conflict and personal life crises — finding that both activate the moral outrage pathway, with stronger effects for personal versus political adversities. Heterogeneity tests confirm results across various subpopulations. Echoing calls in psychology for cross-cultural validation of mechanisms, implications for theory and interventions in conflict-affected environments are discussed.