Projected changes in the frequency of compound events over tropical Brazil in CORDEX-CORE simulations

Abstract Under global warming, extreme events have been increasing in the last decade and are projected to increase in the future with every increment of global warming. The potential increase in compound drought and hot events may induce a complex web of impacts on societies, ecosystems, and economies, including crop failure, wildfires, and water scarcity. This is particularly concerning for Brazil, where it has been demonstrated to be vulnerable to recent extreme climate events. Using an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations over Tropical Brazil, we investigate changes in compound events in response to changes in radiative forcing and their impact on climate extreme events, including drought and extreme heat. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Each model covers the period from 1980 to 2100 under two Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 21st-century projection period. We used observed data from the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD) to evaluate the simulations and perform a quantitative assessment of areas affected by these compound events during the present day. The study finds a strong agreement between RCM simulations and observed data, particularly in terms of precipitation, with high correlation coefficients. The analysis emphasizes the prevalence of compound climate events during the Austral summer season and projects a significant increase in both extreme heat and drought events in the coming decades. These findings underscore Brazil's vulnerability to compound climate events, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions to mitigate the socio-economic and environmental impacts across various sectors.