Using Contrast Boundary Concentration of LST for Earthquake Approach Assessment in Turkey, 6-8 February 2023

Land surface temperature (LST) variations and anomalies associated with tectonic plate movements are common precursors to earthquakes. Spatially extended and dynamic linear zones of high temperature anomalies at the Earth's surface coinciding with faults in the Earth's crust can be used as a predictor of an approaching earthquake. LST contrast boundary concentration maps are proposed as an indicator for analyzing temperature changes before and after a series of earthquakes. The concentration of LST contrast boundaries is estimated from Landsat 8 data for the East Anatolian Fault zone in the vicinity of epicenters of the destructive earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7.8 Mw on the moment magnitude scale occurred in February 2023. A spatial relationship between earthquake epicenters and the maximum concentration of LST boundaries at azimuths of 0° and 90° was found to strengthen as the earthquake approaches and weaken after it. It was found that 92% of epicenters are located at up to 5 km distance from zones of maximum LST boundary concentration. The found regularity allows to conclude the possibility of using the proposed indicator as additional data for seismic hazard risk assessment.