From the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Mental Health of the Philippines: Modelling the Cascade of Disasters using an Influence Diagram

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic had not only physical, but also mental effects due to the anxiety of being infected, necessity of community quarantine, and the big shift in lifestyle over the course of the pandemic. In this study, a Bayesian network was constructed and informed using the responses of 1,605 Filipinos to a survey conducted online during August - September 2021. The main objective of this study is to identify the critical factors that caused the cascade of disasters from the COVID-19 pandemic to a lower state of well-being for the community, by observing how it affected the mental health of the Philippine citizens. To achieve this goal, a Bayesian network was used to assess the state of the community, which was then extended into an influence diagram. Along with expert opinion on possible interventions (decision nodes), we can obtain an optimal set of interventions/decision nodes in order to lift the community’s state of mental well-being. The study aims to identify the proper decisions to make if another pandemic were to occur as well as become a framework for future applications of the Bayesian network into practical fields. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This research is funded by the Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (Grant No. 109981-001) and by Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) (Grant No. 110554-001). This work is conducted under the banner of the Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP), which supports responsible, locally grounded AI innovations for public health preparedness and response across the Global South. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study used survey data from Tuason MT, Perniciaro K, Lamadrid R, Mallillin J, Güss CD. The viral picture of well-being: Biggest concerns, losses, and unintended gifts of covid-19 in the Philippines. PLOS ONE. 2023 Jul 6;18(7). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0288058. Data is available at https://osf.io/j2r5q I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors