The 21st Century Climate Response to China's Clean Air Action

The 21st Century Climate Response to China's Clean Air Action | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The 21st Century Climate Response to China's Clean Air Action Jianmin Ma, Xiaodong Zhang, Xiaohu Jian, Bo Fu, Thomas Gasser, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6392425/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract China’s clean air action (CAA) has significantly reduced air pollution and human risk, cutting sulfur dioxide emissions and the cooling effect of sulfate aerosol (SO 4 ) by 90% since 2007. However, the extent to which the CAA and the emission reductions of SO 2 and other scattering aerosols could affect climate and the country’s carbon targets remains unclear. Here, we examine the individual and combined radiative forcing (RF) of nine climate forcers using an Earth system model and find that the CAA has significantly diminished SO 4 cooling by a factor of about six in 2020 compared to a counterfactual scenario without the CAA, resulting in a temperature increase of 0.08°C over the past thirty years. A shift from negative to positive RF, indicating a transition from cooling to warming trends, occurred in 2007. In the absence of the CAA, this shift would have been postponed by six years to 2013. We estimate an adjusted CO 2 emission derived from CO 2 and SO 4 radiative forcing, which indicates that, amid the trade-off between climate warming and emission mitigation, China’s CAA will delay its carbon peak by eight to thirteen years, and the weakening of SO 4 cooling effects enhances its contribution to global warming by nearly six times. However, if the reductions of other climate forcers are included, their combined warming effect diminishes significantly. Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files RFGHGsvsSO2SING.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6392425","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":449782663,"identity":"5c4f5804-96f6-474f-94a1-d338b3bb775e","order_by":0,"name":"Jianmin 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However, the extent to which the CAA and the emission reductions of SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e and other scattering aerosols could affect climate and the country\u0026rsquo;s carbon targets remains unclear. Here, we examine the individual and combined radiative forcing (RF) of nine climate forcers using an Earth system model and find that the CAA has significantly diminished SO\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e cooling by a factor of about six in 2020 compared to a counterfactual scenario without the CAA, resulting in a temperature increase of 0.08\u0026deg;C over the past thirty years. A shift from negative to positive RF, indicating a transition from cooling to warming trends, occurred in 2007. In the absence of the CAA, this shift would have been postponed by six years to 2013. 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