Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A System Dynamics Case Study of Nigeria

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A System Dynamics Case Study of Nigeria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A System Dynamics Case Study of Nigeria Kudirat Folake Adeoye, Lim Dae-Eun This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7433180/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Malaria remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, with Nigeria bearing the highest burden. Understanding the complex interplay between climate factors and malaria transmission is crucial for effective control. This study extends a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) system dynamics model to analyze the impact of temperature on malaria transmission dynamics in Nigeria, utilizing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections. The model incorporates temperature-dependent parameters for mosquito bite rate, death rate, maturation rate, and parasite incubation rate, adapting an existing framework to Nigerian population characteristics. Simulations were conducted using Vensim, with initial conditions and parameter values derived from literature and national statistics. To ensure model stability, a cap was implemented on the immature mosquito population. Four future temperature scenarios, based on IPCC projections (SSP 1-1.9, SSP 5-8.5, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3–7.0), were integrated with Nigeria's current mean annual temperature. The results consistently indicated that both the force of infection and the number of infected humans decrease with increasing temperatures across all simulated scenarios. This suggests a potential reduction in malaria transmission in Nigeria as temperatures continue to rise due to climate change. While this finding highlights a possible positive consequence of rising temperatures on malaria prevalence, it is crucial to emphasize that climate change still poses severe risks to human life and should be mitigated. Future research will incorporate other climate factors like rainfall and humidity, alongside various malaria preventive measures, to provide a more comprehensive assessment and inform targeted interventions in vulnerable populations. malaria climate change system dynamics modelling IPCC Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7433180","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":509497098,"identity":"7dc918f3-040a-4971-a8ad-b79936b185b8","order_by":0,"name":"Kudirat Folake Adeoye","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kangwon National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kudirat","middleName":"Folake","lastName":"Adeoye","suffix":""},{"id":509497099,"identity":"d11bb9ce-8150-44e3-8540-4a4fe81236b7","order_by":1,"name":"Lim Dae-Eun","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAy0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA8yNDxuQ+AZEaGFsNiRZS5skaVr4jje2Vc6ouWO34XjvAYYfNQzG5g0EtEieOdh2c8OxZ8kbzpxLYOw5xmAmc4CAFoMbiW03H7AdTja7kWPAwNvAYCNByGEG9x+2FT74B9HC+JcoLTcY2xg3th22A2lhBtpiRlCL5JnEZsmZfYcT7M+cMTgsc0zCmKAWvuOHD37s+XbYXrK9x/DhmxobwxmEtMBAYgOQOMDAQNAOBLAnXukoGAWjYBSMOAAA2jNHRebvWTYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1813-3114","institution":"Kangwon National University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lim","middleName":"","lastName":"Dae-Eun","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-22 09:48:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7433180/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7433180/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93817477,"identity":"9de5ad1d-32b6-4feb-bf98-925c79c8b84c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-18 01:33:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":442028,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7433180/v1_covered_47b18e53-513b-4be0-9c45-656e35ddd599.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A System Dynamics Case Study of Nigeria","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"malaria, climate change, system dynamics modelling, IPCC","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7433180/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7433180/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMalaria remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, with Nigeria bearing the highest burden. 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