Causal and predictive data analysis for conservation: a case study for detecting impact of artificial feeding on Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris )

Causal and predictive data analysis for conservation: a case study for detecting impact of artificial feeding on Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris ) | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 23 April 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Causal and predictive data analysis for conservation: a case study for detecting impact of artificial feeding on Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris ) Authors : Yusaku Ohkubo 0000-0003-1847-8005 [email protected] , Ozora Takeda , and Kenta Uchida Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174541571.17043682/v1 1319 views 202 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Estimating the causal effect of a variable is an important task for applied ecology. While several methods have been applied to empirical, observational studies, there have been quite a few attempts to employ the causal inference approach based on the propensity score methods in our field despite its widespread usage in other scientific fields. This pa-per applies the overlapping-weighted estimator to Eurasian red squirrel Sciurus vulgaris to evaluate human activity on behavioral tolerance to humans as a model case. This statis-tical method is one of the common propensity score methods in the statistical community to better evaluate the causal effect of particular variables on a target variable. We focused on the effect of artificial feeding on tolerance to humans because feeding has been sug-gested to be a main driver of habituation to humans, while the causal effect has not been statistically tested. We performed an estimation of causal effects and compared results with the analysis that employed commonly used methods including AIC and LASSO. The results showed that the effect of artificial feeding is larger than previously known and that AIC and LASSO yielded biased results by dismissing confounding variables. Our results indicate that propensity score methods can be useful for wildlife management by offering a more accurate evaluation of causal effects. Supplementary Material File (manuscript_20250417.docx) Download 140.04 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 23 April 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Ecology and Evolution Keywords method development multiple none of the above statistical terrestrial theoretical vertebrate Authors Affiliations Yusaku Ohkubo 0000-0003-1847-8005 [email protected] Okayama University View all articles by this author Ozora Takeda Okayama University View all articles by this author Kenta Uchida The University of Tokyo View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 1319 views 202 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Yusaku Ohkubo, Ozora Takeda, Kenta Uchida. Causal and predictive data analysis for conservation: a case study for detecting impact of artificial feeding on Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris ). Authorea . 23 April 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174541571.17043682/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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