Structured foresight reframes risk around transitions towards sustainable and resilient farming in a volatile world

Structured foresight reframes risk around transitions towards sustainable and resilient farming in a volatile world | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Structured foresight reframes risk around transitions towards sustainable and resilient farming in a volatile world David Styles, Daniel Henn, Colm Duffy, Kevin Black, Andres Martinez-Arce This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8254015/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Farmers manage almost 5 billion hectares of land globally, deliver food security and underpin cultural and economic life in rural areas. Farming policies typically prioritise stability and incremental change to mitigate risk. Yet scientific evidence points to a need for transformative change across the land sector to effectively tackle the climate and biodiversity crises. Meanwhile, climate and geopolitical volatility underscore the need for resilient farm systems. Reconciling multifaceted objectives within long-term strategic policymaking for farming and land use is a major challenge, requiring multi-dimensional evidence. Using Ireland’s land sector as an example, we employ structured foresight combined with quantitative back-casting to explore alternative climate-neutral farming pathways under different future contexts. Bioeconomy and diversified protein pathways score better across key sustainability and resilience criteria compared with business as usual (BAU). Well-intentioned policies supporting existing farming practises may underestimate the risks of BAU, and could lock farmers into unsustainable and non-resilient investments. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences net zero land sparing land sharing food systems bioenergy food security Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 11 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 08 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 01 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8254015","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":556968323,"identity":"b80cd788-af6b-40b9-b05e-88e512d80179","order_by":0,"name":"David 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world","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-sustainable-agriculture","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Sustainable Agriculture](https://www.nature.com/npjsustainagric/)","snPcode":"44264","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44264/3","title":"npj Sustainable 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Farming policies typically prioritise stability and incremental change to mitigate risk. Yet scientific evidence points to a need for transformative change across the land sector to effectively tackle the climate and biodiversity crises. Meanwhile, climate and geopolitical volatility underscore the need for resilient farm systems. Reconciling multifaceted objectives within long-term strategic policymaking for farming and land use is a major challenge, requiring multi-dimensional evidence. Using Ireland\u0026rsquo;s land sector as an example, we employ structured foresight combined with quantitative back-casting to explore alternative climate-neutral farming pathways under different future contexts. Bioeconomy and diversified protein pathways score better across key sustainability and resilience criteria compared with business as usual (BAU). Well-intentioned policies supporting existing farming practises may underestimate the risks of BAU, and could lock farmers into unsustainable and non-resilient investments.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Structured foresight reframes risk around transitions towards sustainable and resilient farming in a volatile world","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-11 16:13:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8254015/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-09T11:12:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-12T00:46:25+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T11:35:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-09T00:44:05+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"72169180830819856761872294685774084576","date":"2026-01-19T20:37:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"338896814513984442704903464792195261254","date":"2026-01-19T20:04:15+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"310066908659421345326948828863535064789","date":"2026-01-19T15:25:53+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"53747505179240489545163076640514662434","date":"2026-01-19T14:17:09+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-08T11:00:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-05T05:16:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-04T15:16:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"npj Sustainable Agriculture","date":"2025-12-01T21:14:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-sustainable-agriculture","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Sustainable Agriculture](https://www.nature.com/npjsustainagric/)","snPcode":"44264","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44264/3","title":"npj Sustainable Agriculture","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7d66e771-c453-486f-8348-4da57b3e7c51","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":59276204,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":59276205,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology"},{"id":59276206,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology"},{"id":59276207,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":59276208,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-17T12:55:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-11 16:13:54","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8254015","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8254015","identity":"rs-8254015","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}