Structural Duality in Emerging Markets: HS-to-Sector Mapping and Partner-Role Diagnostics for the Kyrgyz Republic’s Trade (2019–2024)

We propose a reproducible data-science workflow to diagnose partner–sector dependencies in the Kyrgyz Republic’s goods trade (2019–2024). HS-based flows are mapped into macro-sectors and transformed into partner indicators (turnover, net trade, import coverage, and role labels). Visual diagnostics and tables reveal a structural duality: (i) a China-centered import-deficit pole in manufactured goods and (ii) a narrow gold-driven export-surplus pole concentrated in the United Kingdom and Switzerland. We interpret the latter as surplus donors (donors of foreign-exchange inflows via trade) that partially offset the deficit pole. The pipeline is designed for repeatable monitoring of concentration risk and partner dependence.