Medical Occupation Preference under the Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of social and risk preference

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented demands on health care workers. This will likely have fundamental and lasting impacts on preferences to work in the medical profession. We examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on medical occupation preferences, focusing on Wuhan. The outbreak of COVID-19 began in Wuhan and served as an exogenous shock on many people’s lives, especially those with a career in the medical industry. Methods: : We conducted a survey of 5 686 respondents in China regarding the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on medical occupation preference. The survey was conducted during March 2020 at a time when the pandemic in Wuhan has just passed its peak. This allows us to capture the most immediate effect from the pandemic. To test the robustness of our results we conducted a complimentary survey in the UK in May 2020 with 1 198 respondents. We also, in December 2020, conducted a field experiment with 428 first and second-year medical students in Wuhan. This allows us to compare students who enrolled before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan. Results: : We find that a significant negative impact of the pandemic has on the willingness to let a loved one choose a medical occupation. Individuals who were heavily influenced by the pandemic, i.e. Wuhan residents especially medical workers, express significantly lower medical occupation preferences. Further analysis from Sobel-Goodman mediation tests reveal that around half of the total negative effect can be mediated by enhanced risk aversion and reduced pro-sociality. The UK survey and the field experiment among university medical school students in Wuhan reinforce these findings. Conclusions: : Our results suggest a fundamental change in medical occupation preferences. Medical workers' shift in risk- and social-preferences has caused a reduced medical occupation preference. Non-medical workers and students who are more pro-social and risk-seeking are more likely to choose a medical occupation. This change is already influencing the intake of students into medical school and so will have long term consequences.