Dynamic Vaccine Allocation for Control of Human Transmissible Disease

Dynamic Vaccine Allocation for Control of Human Transmissible Disease | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Dynamic Vaccine Allocation for Control of Human Transmissible Disease Mingdong Lyu, Chang Chang, Kuofu Liu, Randolph Hall This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4173416/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract During pandemics, such as COVID-19, supplies of vaccines can be insufficient to meet all needs, particularly when vaccines first become available. Our study develops a dynamic methodology for vaccine allo- cation, segmented by region, age, and timeframe, using a time-sensitive, age-structured compartmental model. Based on the objective of mini- mizing a weighted sum of deaths and cases, we used the Sequential Least Squares Quadratic Programming method to search for a locally opti- mal COVID-19 vaccine allocation for the United States, for the period from December 16, 2020, to June 30, 2021, where regions corresponded to the 50 states in the United States (US). We also compared our solu- tion to actual allocations of vaccines. From our model, we estimate that approximately 1.8 million cases and 9 thousand deaths could have been averted in the US with an improved allocation. When case reduction is prioritized over death reduction, we found that young people (17 and younger) should receive priority over old people due to their potential to expose others. However, if death reduction is prioritized over case reduc- tion, we found that more vaccines should be allocated to older people, due to their propensity for severe disease. While we have applied our methodology to COVID-19, our approach generalizes to other human- transmissible diseases, with potential application to future epidemics. Covid-19 Transmission modeling Vaccine allocation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4173416","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":286069952,"identity":"e9e67ac3-a6b9-4a8e-a668-11e32fe3ccfb","order_by":0,"name":"Mingdong Lyu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAn0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdiD+AMR8xGthZmBgnAGk2UjSwsxDkhbdZh4zadsd9+TYGNgvPuYhRovZYaCW3DPFxmwMPMXGJGhpS0hsY+BJk5xBtBbLtoR6ErUwtiUkAP1yTOIDcVrYii172xIM25h5mA2I03K8eeONn20J8vzs7Q8fJBCjhYGBwwBCM/MYEKcBmGIeoDNGwSgYBaNgFKACAGbDJ12ZxN6JAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"National Renewable Energy Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mingdong","middleName":"","lastName":"Lyu","suffix":""},{"id":286069953,"identity":"dfbc99b0-6113-45e8-b210-bd5beeb6211e","order_by":1,"name":"Chang Chang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southern California","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chang","middleName":"","lastName":"Chang","suffix":""},{"id":286069954,"identity":"cd01f641-752a-46e1-9128-25d8c060829d","order_by":2,"name":"Kuofu Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southern California","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kuofu","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":286069955,"identity":"b445f750-6f7e-409d-b86e-37697b436f54","order_by":3,"name":"Randolph Hall","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southern California","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Randolph","middleName":"","lastName":"Hall","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-27 04:44:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4173416/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4173416/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56905784,"identity":"093c55b6-adab-4d4c-b988-7d73c730305e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-22 03:32:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":577872,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DynamicVaccineAllocationforControlofHumanTransmissibleDisease.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4173416/v1_covered_1f10a7d6-62d9-4ce4-b2d2-252c7de08a0e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Dynamic Vaccine Allocation for Control of Human Transmissible Disease","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Covid-19, Transmission modeling, Vaccine allocation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4173416/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4173416/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDuring pandemics, such as COVID-19, supplies of vaccines can be insufficient to meet all needs, particularly when vaccines first become available. 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