Accounting State Space as the Minimal Unit for Economic Agent-Based Modeling: Advancing Ripple Effect Analysis in Real-Time Economy

Accounting State Space as the Minimal Unit for Economic Agent-Based Modeling: Advancing Ripple Effect Analysis in Real-Time Economy | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Accounting State Space as the Minimal Unit for Economic Agent-Based Modeling: Advancing Ripple Effect Analysis in Real-Time Economy Kaya Akagi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The emergence of Real-Time Economy has highlighted the critical importance of accounting data as the fundamental unit of economic activity. In economic Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), accounting state space represents the minimal unit for capturing economic transactions and their ripple effects. This paper develops an Accounting-State Agent-Based Simulation (AS-ABM) that embeds inventory levels and input constraints into an IO-consistent production network, where agents maintain bookkeeping state spaces and interact in stage-oriented time. We demonstrate that accounting state space serves as the essential foundation for realistic economic modeling, enabling the analysis of dynamic ripple effects with stock-out behavior and replenishment lags. Through three simulations—(i) the Leontief inverse benchmark, (ii) an ABM reproducing the benchmark, and (iii) an ABM with input constraints—we show that stock-out policies govern amplification versus damping of ripple effects. The model reproduces key stylized facts on variability and generates Kitchin-type inventory cycles via endogenous delays, providing a mechanism-based explanation for gaps between IO predictions and observed outcomes in Real-Time Economy contexts. Accounting State Space Real-Time Economy Accounting-State Agent-Based Modeling (AS-ABM) Ripple Effect Analysis Exchange Algebra Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8485050","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":567562261,"identity":"735ed39c-5c08-42f6-bfcb-da0696eb9713","order_by":0,"name":"Kaya Akagi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA10lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACNiA2SGDgZ2ZgPMDAwEyCFslmBgZStDAkMBgcIFaLwfFjiR+/FKTJGx9nfnDgY5s1A397dwJ+LWfSDkvLGOQYbjvMZnBwZls6g8SZsxvwazmQ3iAtYVDBuO0wD8Nh3rbDDAYSuQS0nH/e/BuoxX5zM9FabqQdk/xgkJO4gZlYLZI3nqVZMxikJc8A+WXGuXQegn7hO59mfPPHn2Tb/v7DDx98KLOW42/vxa9F4QAwLniQBHhwqYQD+QYGBsYfBJWNglEwCkbBiAYAEL5LumQbhuAAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6094-8210","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kaya","middleName":"","lastName":"Akagi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-31 02:15:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99794024,"identity":"f54155ea-130f-4c3b-96c7-ba627169105d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:33:48","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":8820536,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"template.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8485050/v1_covered_09a28588-2ca4-49d1-8e52-d832ab09fa0c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eAccounting State Space as the Minimal Unit for Economic Agent-Based Modeling: Advancing Ripple Effect Analysis in Real-Time Economy\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Chiba University of Commerce","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Accounting State Space, Real-Time Economy, Accounting-State Agent-Based Modeling (AS-ABM), Ripple Effect Analysis, Exchange Algebra","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe emergence of Real-Time Economy has highlighted the critical importance of accounting data as the fundamental unit of economic activity. In economic Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), accounting state space represents the minimal unit for capturing economic transactions and their ripple effects. This paper develops an Accounting-State Agent-Based Simulation (AS-ABM) that embeds inventory levels and input constraints into an IO-consistent production network, where agents maintain bookkeeping state spaces and interact in stage-oriented time. We demonstrate that accounting state space serves as the essential foundation for realistic economic modeling, enabling the analysis of dynamic ripple effects with stock-out behavior and replenishment lags. Through three simulations—(i) the Leontief inverse benchmark, (ii) an ABM reproducing the benchmark, and (iii) an ABM with input constraints—we show that stock-out policies govern amplification versus damping of ripple effects. The model reproduces key stylized facts on variability and generates Kitchin-type inventory cycles via endogenous delays, providing a mechanism-based explanation for gaps between IO predictions and observed outcomes in Real-Time Economy contexts.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Accounting State Space as the Minimal Unit for Economic Agent-Based Modeling: Advancing Ripple Effect Analysis in Real-Time Economy","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-06 12:07:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8485050/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7c478d83-4374-4dcd-85ab-19377f96c340","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 6th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-06T12:07:55+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-06 12:07:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8485050","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8485050","identity":"rs-8485050","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}