Multivariable Geophysical Stressors andTectonic Feedbacks under ChangingBoundary Conditions:Comparative Analysis with Permian Events

Multivariable Geophysical Stressors andTectonic Feedbacks under ChangingBoundary Conditions:Comparative Analysis with Permian Events | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multivariable Geophysical Stressors andTectonic Feedbacks under ChangingBoundary Conditions:Comparative Analysis with Permian Events Iñaki Del Amo Castillo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7189094/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates whether global lithospheric stress is partially modulated by a combination of external geophysical forcings. We integrate solar declination, lunar phase cycles, oceanic mass redistribution, atmospheric pressure anomalies, and polar ice dynamics into a unified multivariable framework to explain variations in shallow crustal stress. Leveraging global datasets from USGS, GVP, ESA-CCI, ERA5, and NASA/JPL (1973–2025), we quantify statistical correlations between these external drivers and seismic–volcanic activity. The results reveal moderate associations (e.g., r ≈ 0.48), and simulations indicate tectonic stress increases of up to Δσ ≈ 0.05 MPa under scenarios of enhanced ocean loading (+5%). We further model magmatic evolution in Iceland as a polar-analog system, projecting increased melt accumulation under conditions of polar ice loss. These simulations are compared to large igneous provinces from the deep past (e.g., Siberian Traps) to contextualize long-term volcanic behavior. Although current activity remains within natural variability, sustained unloading over millennia could amplify tectonic responses. This work proposes a physically grounded, multivariable stress model with potential relevance for early-warning systems and climate–geodynamics research. Finally, we explore how biological decline—particularly polar diatom reduction—may intensify radiative forcing and reinforce feedbacks between surface climate and lithospheric dynamics. tectonic stress ocean mass solar-lunar forcing Permian comparison volcanic feedback Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files DATAMultivariableGeophysicalStressors.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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