Analyzing Extreme Winds over Turkey and Their Relationships with Synoptic Patterns Using Cluster Analysis

Climate research shows that extreme weather events and their effects are increasing in frequency, severity, and impact. Extreme wind events can cause massive societal and economic damage. High wind occurrences and their causes must be identified because they are hard to define and understand. Extreme wind modeling affects wind power plant planning, installation, and building modeling. This applies to city, vegetation, and vegetational area modeling. The scientific literature utilizes statistical, dynamic (Weather Research and Forecasting-WRF), and machine learning methods to identify extreme wind speeds. This study explores the relationship between lower-level extreme wind speeds and upper-level parameters like Z500, and T850 based on cluster analysis. The aim is to explore the correlation between upper-level atmospheric dynamics and lower-level wind behavior. K-Means cluster analysis method was employed to classify Turkish regions with similar severe wind episodes. WRF model simulation findings from NEWA (New European Wind Atlas) project (2019) were used for that purpose. The NEWA project's wind speed data at 100m a.g.l. was used for cluster analysis. We simplify the process by grid point reduction and applying the top 2% percentile as threshold value. Self-Organized Maps (SOM) clustering was also applied using the upper-level variables.