Real-Time Estimation of Ionospheric Hole Parameters through GNSS Variometry

Real-Time Estimation of Ionospheric Hole Parameters through GNSS Variometry | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Real-Time Estimation of Ionospheric Hole Parameters through GNSS Variometry Tommaso Lo Presti, Jacopo Capolicchio, Marco Fortunato, Augusto Mazzoni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096968/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this work, a new method for real-time estimation of Ionospheric Hole parameters using dual-frequency GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) observations is presented. The methodology is designed to work in real-time; it can be applied to different types of ionospheric disturbances and is based on a technique called VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), along with a tracking algorithm for the ionospheric perturbation parameters. The VARION, designed and developed by "Sapienza Università di Roma", allows the calculation of TEC (Total Electron Content) variations using double-frequencies GNSS phase observations. Additionally, the implementation of a least-squares tracking algorithm enables the calculation of the origin position, the propagation velocity of the disturbance, and the event time. The main assumption for the methodology is that the perturbation is considered as an isotropic wavefront propagating inside a single ionospheric layer at about 300 km altitude. This method has been tested on a dataset collected from 42 GPS (Global Positioning System) ground stations during the Falcon 9 launch event on August 24, 2017, a particular case that favored the formation of an Ionospheric Hole due to the low payload mass. The results show that the method effectively reconstructs the spatial and temporal evolution of the disturbance and highlights its potential for real-time monitoring of the ionosphere and to mitigate the impact of ionospheric irregularities on satellite navigation and telecommunications. Ionosphere Ionospheric Disturbances Total Electron Content GNSS Variometry Real-time Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 27 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 31 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 31 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 11 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9096968","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":617108191,"identity":"e2c52551-b2cd-4358-90fd-b84c87b5f24d","order_by":0,"name":"Tommaso Lo Presti","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABGUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADPijNw8/efABIS8jgUskDY7BBKAMeyZ5jCSAtPNg1YNHCYHAjxwBFBh3Ys3enbvjxx4aBjb332IcPf/7IALV8fnWjxoKHgf3w0Q3YbOE5u+1mb1saAxvPueSZM9uADjvzdpt1zjGgw3jS0m5g0yKRu+0Gb8NhBjaJHGNm3gYDHr7juduMc9iAWiR4zHBpufnnD1TLnz8GPAwHcp4Z5/zDr+U2DxtUCwObAY/AiRzmx7lteLScObvttmxbGg/IL4y9bcagQDZjzu2TAIpg9wt7e++2m2/+2Mjxs/ceZvjxR84eGJWPP+d8qwOKHD6GTQvcNuSIYJMAk3iUI3RBAfMHwqpHwSgYBaNgBAEA1OVdneNcjp8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Sapienza University of Rome","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tommaso","middleName":"Lo","lastName":"Presti","suffix":""},{"id":617108192,"identity":"7b5867ad-7aef-469f-b8c3-436391ea97e3","order_by":1,"name":"Jacopo Capolicchio","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Thales Alenia Space Italia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jacopo","middleName":"","lastName":"Capolicchio","suffix":""},{"id":617108193,"identity":"c8a61761-9ba8-402f-a29f-cdf3abd749d6","order_by":2,"name":"Marco Fortunato","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Thales Alenia Space Italia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Fortunato","suffix":""},{"id":617108194,"identity":"0a9c2e30-cbf9-490b-a6ad-fa299419e4c7","order_by":3,"name":"Augusto Mazzoni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Sapienza University of Rome","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Augusto","middleName":"","lastName":"Mazzoni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-11 17:23:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096968/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9096968/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106403573,"identity":"c5304ebd-9e74-4119-83b9-cb62a2919cd3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:14:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1832758,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RealTimeEstimationofIonosphericHole.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9096968/v1_covered_f3e414be-071e-4f77-9fa3-1bd9f3bcdde0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Real-Time Estimation of Ionospheric Hole Parameters through GNSS Variometry","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"rendiconti-lincei-scienze-fisiche-e-naturali","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"lync","sideBox":"Learn more about [Rendiconti Lincei. 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This method has been tested on a dataset collected from 42 GPS (Global Positioning System) ground stations during the Falcon 9 launch event on August 24, 2017, a particular case that favored the formation of an Ionospheric Hole due to the low payload mass. 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