Narrowing streamflow distribution can alter water allocation timing and quantity

Narrowing streamflow distribution can alter water allocation timing and quantity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Narrowing streamflow distribution can alter water allocation timing and quantity Steven Smith, Adrienne Marshall This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Water → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Societal demands for surface water resources vary seasonally, and hydrological regimes are shifting in terms of both discharge quantity and timing. Here, we show that not only the quantity and timing, but also the width of the streamflow distribution, described here using a new metric called the Standard Deviation of Timing (SDoT), is changing. SDoT has spatially heterogeneous relationships with temperature and precipitation. It is predominantly decreasing in the western US and increasing in the eastern US, with more locally significant trends at reference gauges than streamflow quantity or timing. We show how this changing SDoT could affect the division of water among water rights holders under the prior appropriation doctrine, and we provide empirical evidence that narrower runoff distributions have caused some junior water rights holders to receive a larger fraction of runoff. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Social science/Economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementalmaterialpdf.pdf Online supplementary material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Water → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7236227","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499077214,"identity":"a9217f54-5905-4990-8dd3-2d3cf67a9a60","order_by":0,"name":"Steven Smith","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCA4wNEnIMzBAOYwNRWg42WBiTpoXhYENFIkwlYS3y/acTD3/cIZG+tp334MMfDDayGw4Q0GJwI3fDgYNnJHK3HeZLNuZhSDMmrEWCF6ilDaSFx0yageFwIkEt8v1nwVrSzQ7zmP/8wfCfsBaGA7lgLQlALWYMPAwHCGsB++Vsm4Qh0GHG0jwGycYziXDY5g+VbXXyZufPGH78UWEn20fQYWiWkqZ8FIyCUTAKRgEOAAAC0knroQDTRAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9653-2663","institution":"Colorado School of Mines","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Steven","middleName":"","lastName":"Smith","suffix":""},{"id":499077215,"identity":"f6dbad7e-4107-4f21-a90c-547e5c6c88b8","order_by":1,"name":"Adrienne Marshall","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Colorado School of Mines","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Adrienne","middleName":"","lastName":"Marshall","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-28 17:20:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-026-00639-4","type":"published","date":"2026-04-30T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109205253,"identity":"a681b625-253b-4606-8cc5-8802a318e886","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-13 15:03:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1327110,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptdraftpdf.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7236227/v1_covered_2592680a-3bc0-43cd-b43b-1a859401b1ef.pdf"},{"id":88938324,"identity":"75063f75-10d8-4a6e-8b19-32b4b47e1707","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-13 02:35:38","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":12213133,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Online supplementary material","description":"","filename":"Supplementalmaterialpdf.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7236227/v1/1f67d41f7c03fb49c99851f6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Narrowing streamflow distribution can alter water allocation timing and quantity","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Societal demands for surface water resources vary seasonally, and hydrological regimes are shifting in terms of both discharge quantity and timing. Here, we show that not only the quantity and timing, but also the width of the streamflow distribution, described here using a new metric called the Standard Deviation of Timing (SDoT), is changing. SDoT has spatially heterogeneous relationships with temperature and precipitation. It is predominantly decreasing in the western US and increasing in the eastern US, with more locally significant trends at reference gauges than streamflow quantity or timing. We show how this changing SDoT could affect the division of water among water rights holders under the prior appropriation doctrine, and we provide empirical evidence that narrower runoff distributions have caused some junior water rights holders to receive a larger fraction of runoff.","manuscriptTitle":"Narrowing streamflow distribution can alter water allocation timing and quantity","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-13 02:35:33","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7236227/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-water","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"natwater","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Water](https://www.nature.com/natwater/)","snPcode":"44221","submissionUrl":"https://mts-natwater.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex","title":"Nature Water","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ba3406df-31d5-4e26-bf68-e61fedde439a","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 13th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":53007849,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"},{"id":53007850,"name":"Social science/Economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-13T14:32:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7236227","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-026-00639-4","journal":{"identity":"nature-water","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature Water"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-30 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 30th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-13 02:35:33","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s44221-026-00639-4","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-026-00639-4","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7236227","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7236227","identity":"rs-7236227","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}