A Novel Method for Water Inrush Evaluation Considering Spatial Variability of Strata Permeability: Principles, Optimization, and a Case Study

A Novel Method for Water Inrush Evaluation Considering Spatial Variability of Strata Permeability: Principles, Optimization, and a Case Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Novel Method for Water Inrush Evaluation Considering Spatial Variability of Strata Permeability: Principles, Optimization, and a Case Study Yun Bai, Qiang Wu, Peitao Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The water permeability of the deep limestone strata in North China-type coalfields exhibits significant spatial variability, which presents challenges in accurately assessing the risk of water inrush under mining disturbances using traditional vulnerability index methods. These conventional approaches often rely on averaging and planarizing the water permeability characteristics of aquifers, overlooking their strong spatial variability. As a result, this can lead to error propagation and amplification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a vulnerability index tomography method that explicitly accounts for the spatial variability of water permeability. The method involves subdividing the strata into multiple layers and independently calculating vulnerability indices for each layer, followed by precisely locating the layers with high water inrush risks. This layered approach enhances the accuracy of the evaluation by more effectively capturing vertical index variations. Furthermore, the CPO-Adaboost-RF intelligent algorithm resolves several challenges such as incomplete geological data, extensive computations, and human errors in analysis. A case study conducted at the Dengcao coal mine revealed significant differences in vulnerability among different layers, highlighting that the strong spatial variability cannot be ignored. The combination of the sensitivity analysis results and the results from geophysical prospecting further validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. This paper provides a theoretical foundation and practical reference for the assessment of water inrush risk of rock strata with strong vertical water permeability variability, such as the deep limestone in North China-type coalfields, and offers insights for formulating more rational water prevention measures. Vulnerability index tomography method Coal mine water Spatial variability Water inrush assessment Intelligent algorithm Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 17 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6919756","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":486331484,"identity":"baa31d8e-7955-4293-9a18-6a37b5b6f1bc","order_by":0,"name":"Yun Bai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yun","middleName":"","lastName":"Bai","suffix":""},{"id":486331485,"identity":"a1aef0b4-442b-4647-ab6d-39a333f38d7c","order_by":1,"name":"Qiang Wu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA30lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxoYDHwwk6tuYGRsfJFTUEKOFufHhjAIbxj725maDB2eOEaOFvdmY50Ma4zye422SD1uYCWvQbT/YJs1jcJiZTSKxrSKxgY2Bv707Aa8WszOJbZJzDA6zgbTcSNwhwyBx5uwG/FoOJLZJvDE4zAPRcoaNwUAil4CW8w/bJIAOkwBpKUhsYyZCy43EZkMegzQDNp6DbQxEankIDGQDmwQ29sZmiYQzx3gI++V8+oMDH/5IJMg3sz/8+KOiRo6/vRe/FgzAQ5ryUTAKRsEoGAVYAQDHcU8gc8T2swAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiang","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":486331486,"identity":"9b3a149d-4bd0-4638-9707-955ea609d90e","order_by":2,"name":"Peitao Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peitao","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-18 06:29:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87032344,"identity":"26365da8-531d-46e0-9494-d92d1224e051","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-18 12:56:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1745750,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6919756/v1_covered_841fd903-666e-4d35-8e5a-667a9010ffef.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"A Novel Method for Water Inrush Evaluation Considering Spatial Variability of Strata Permeability: Principles, Optimization, and a Case Study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"mine-water-and-the-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"mwen","sideBox":"Learn more about [Mine Water and the Environment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10230)","snPcode":"10230","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/mwen/default2.aspx","title":"Mine Water and the Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Vulnerability index tomography method, Coal mine water, Spatial variability, Water inrush assessment, Intelligent algorithm","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe water permeability of the deep limestone strata in North China-type coalfields exhibits significant spatial variability, which presents challenges in accurately assessing the risk of water inrush under mining disturbances using traditional vulnerability index methods. These conventional approaches often rely on averaging and planarizing the water permeability characteristics of aquifers, overlooking their strong spatial variability. As a result, this can lead to error propagation and amplification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a vulnerability index tomography method that explicitly accounts for the spatial variability of water permeability. The method involves subdividing the strata into multiple layers and independently calculating vulnerability indices for each layer, followed by precisely locating the layers with high water inrush risks. This layered approach enhances the accuracy of the evaluation by more effectively capturing vertical index variations. Furthermore, the CPO-Adaboost-RF intelligent algorithm resolves several challenges such as incomplete geological data, extensive computations, and human errors in analysis. A case study conducted at the Dengcao coal mine revealed significant differences in vulnerability among different layers, highlighting that the strong spatial variability cannot be ignored. The combination of the sensitivity analysis results and the results from geophysical prospecting further validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. This paper provides a theoretical foundation and practical reference for the assessment of water inrush risk of rock strata with strong vertical water permeability variability, such as the deep limestone in North China-type coalfields, and offers insights for formulating more rational water prevention measures.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"A Novel Method for Water Inrush Evaluation Considering Spatial Variability of Strata Permeability: Principles, Optimization, and a Case Study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-18 12:24:07","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6919756/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-07-17T12:01:05+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-07-16T12:28:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-21T09:16:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Mine Water and the Environment","date":"2025-06-18T02:29:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"mine-water-and-the-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"mwen","sideBox":"Learn more about [Mine Water and the Environment](http://link.springer.com/journal/10230)","snPcode":"10230","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/mwen/default2.aspx","title":"Mine Water and the Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"096773c2-4a3d-461d-92ae-d70066b140c6","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 18th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-01T08:01:06+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-18 12:24:07","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6919756","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6919756","identity":"rs-6919756","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}