Bayesian inversion of MDJ seismograms for source parameters of contained DPRK underground nuclear explosions

Bayesian inversion of MDJ seismograms for source parameters of contained DPRK underground nuclear explosions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Bayesian inversion of MDJ seismograms for source parameters of contained DPRK underground nuclear explosions Anton Ziolkowski This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3445922/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2024 Read the published version in Pure and Applied Geophysics → Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Using seismograms recorded at Mudanjiang (MDJ) seismic station in China, I propose a new approach to obtain source parameters of the five Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) contained underground nuclear explosions. The contained events were located within about 1 km of each other at the DPRK Punggye-ri nuclear test site at Mount Mantap, a granite peak. The Green’s function from Punggye-ri to MDJ is assumed to be the same for each source. Each source is modelled as a spherical cavity in a homogeneous isotropic elastic full space, with four independent parameters constrained by published data on the properties of granite and analysis of the recorded MDJ seismograms. The effect of the ground surface is included as a planar reflection that modifies the pressure at the cavity boundary. The Green’s function for each event is estimated by deconvolving the seismogram for the estimated source time function. Very fast simulated annealing (VFSA) is used to search the parameter space to minimise the root-mean square difference among the estimated Green’s functions and their mean. The estimated Green’s functions are not identical, but are similar, and differ in amplitude by less than a factor of 4. The estimated source time functions may be used to obtain Green’s functions from Punggye-ri nuclear test site to other seismic stations by deconvolution of the corresponding seismograms. Mapping the nonlinear zones surrounding each explosion indicates that this part of the site was destroyed by the underground nuclear tests before its official destruction on 24 May 2018. Explosion source Green’s function deconvolution seismogram. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2024 Read the published version in Pure and Applied Geophysics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 20 Dec, 2023 Reviews received at journal 06 Nov, 2023 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Oct, 2023 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Oct, 2023 Editor assigned by journal 16 Oct, 2023 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Oct, 2023 First submitted to journal 14 Oct, 2023 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3445922","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":240487469,"identity":"e6dad0e1-10c1-404a-bbb3-4a6852d61924","order_by":0,"name":"Anton Ziolkowski","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABB0lEQVRIie2RPWrDMBhAvyCQly9otbF7BxVBpoKvEmHwpIJHDxkEAWcpdHUItFdob+AicJccwNAuxmsO0MEJbWxPBSUdO+gt+oHH04cAHI5/CB2XE4I3bJfIAPhw51sUBmQwEcikBPqKEmgyxSYFeHVF4R+Pb10GGDFCZYd9Gon39Qt8rUButUX5NESU4GOwpkbMC4WLfZ3NHmqQO1ulSWiIwJEbrwjvdY6LRnGYa5BPFiUeleWoqD5H8Xzgs+MFZapUPwqtQ0UVch85OVcuPEwI5NV5lkQcixT9fZqZqPaFdfxGth3mp5h5xW1b9knMNua1PazubsrKkhnFX+fK/isOh8Ph+Avf1e1PWncm8LsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anton","middleName":"","lastName":"Ziolkowski","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-10-14 13:59:21","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3445922/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3445922/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03454-8","type":"published","date":"2024-04-01T15:02:06+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":54304026,"identity":"a9df75d7-eb11-4d31-ab0e-f1bc18324986","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-08 15:13:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1287855,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DPRK20231014.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3445922/v1_covered_32fcd254-1792-413e-ba34-4a5f25ac8d46.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Bayesian inversion of MDJ seismograms for source parameters of contained DPRK underground nuclear explosions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"pure-and-applied-geophysics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"paag","sideBox":"Learn more about [Pure and Applied Geophysics](https://www.springer.com/journal/24)","snPcode":"24","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/24/3","title":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Explosion source, Green’s function, deconvolution, seismogram.","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3445922/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3445922/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUsing seismograms recorded at Mudanjiang (MDJ) seismic station in China, I propose a new approach to obtain source parameters of the five Democratic People\u0026rsquo;s Republic of Korea (DPRK) contained underground nuclear explosions. The contained events were located within about 1 km of each other at the DPRK Punggye-ri nuclear test site at Mount Mantap, a granite peak. The Green\u0026rsquo;s function from Punggye-ri to MDJ is assumed to be the same for each source.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEach source is modelled as a spherical cavity in a homogeneous isotropic elastic full space, with four independent parameters constrained by published data on the properties of granite and analysis of the recorded MDJ seismograms. The effect of the ground surface is included as a planar reflection that modifies the pressure at the cavity boundary. The Green\u0026rsquo;s function for each event is estimated by deconvolving the seismogram for the estimated source time function. 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