Climate Extremes and Protests in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, 1995-2013

Abstract Scientists have shown a relationship between climate conditions and social unrest, specifically related to temperature and precipitation trends. Though deviations from historically normative patterns are becoming more pronounced, it remains unclear to what extent they affect protests, linearly and otherwise. Similarly, we know little about the extent to which climate anomalies create contemporaneous versus lagged effects on protests. To address these questions, we examine determinants of protest levels between 1995 and 2013 in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Our innovative methodology involves modeling geocoded, media-reported protests (derived from the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System) at 0.5x0.5 degree geospatial resolution, using unobtrusive, satellite-derived data on temperature and precipitation patterns and historical deviations. We also integrate comparable satellite data on nightlight pollution. Properties of our outcome variable require negative binomial regression analysis. We find that, net of controls gauging local demographic and country-level dynamics, temperatures and precipitation directly impact protests in unexpected ways: In any given year and location, protests are strongly, positively associated with heavy precipitation and with higher temperature levels. Protests are also strongly, positively associated with historical deviations in precipitation patterns. This applies to anomalies related to both wetness and dryness. Finally, historically aberrant precipitation has pronounced curvilinear, lagged effectson protest levels. We situate these complex findings in light of classic, structurally based arguments grounded in social science theory.