Large-scale spatial analyses reveal thermal onset and disease hotspots of proliferative kidney disease in brown trout

Large-scale spatial analyses reveal thermal onset and disease hotspots of proliferative kidney disease in brown trout | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 10 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Large-scale spatial analyses reveal thermal onset and disease hotspots of proliferative kidney disease in brown trout Authors : Duncan Philpott 0009-0007-5520-6654 [email protected] , Joacim Näslund , Serena Donadi 0000-0002-8920-9630 , and Anti Vasemägi 0000-0002-2184-5534 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176010332.21652816/v1 185 views 85 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) poses a threat to wild salmonids, yet its spatial patterns remain poorly understood, particularly at large scales. We combined a first nationwide screening of brown trout (Salmo trutta) consisting of 1072 fish from 160 locations with process-based stream-temperature modelling, which increases the accuracy of predicted temperatures, to map infection by the parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, quantify parasite load (using qPCR from kidney tissue), and calculate renal hyperplasia across Sweden. PKD occurred once study-period mean water temperatures approached a threshold of approximately 15.4 °C and renal hyperplasia peaked near 17 °C, however warm water did not always cause disease: asymptomatic infections were common above the temperature threshold. Broadly, hotspots for severe pathology clustered in southern Sweden, whilst cold spots occurred in the north and mountainous regions. However, dams and shallow lakes sometimes caused deviations from such biogeographic patterns, whereby the northernmost PKD case and T. bryosalmonae infection occurred downstream of dams. Furthermore, we identified a mid-Sweden coastal hotspot that would be missed by assuming a simple latitudinal trend for disease traits. Variation was present at fine scales where bryozoan abundances and additional environmental drivers may be affecting the epidemiology. Management actions that re-establish riparian shade or remove small impoundments can reduce thermal exposure and infection pressure. Supplementary Material File (ms_maintext.docx) Download 1.36 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 10 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate impacts emerging disease proliferative kidney disease salmo trutta spatial trends temperature threshold Authors Affiliations Duncan Philpott 0009-0007-5520-6654 [email protected] Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences View all articles by this author Joacim Näslund Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences View all articles by this author Serena Donadi 0000-0002-8920-9630 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences View all articles by this author Anti Vasemägi 0000-0002-2184-5534 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 185 views 85 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Duncan Philpott, Joacim Näslund, Serena Donadi, et al. Large-scale spatial analyses reveal thermal onset and disease hotspots of proliferative kidney disease in brown trout. Authorea . 10 October 2025. 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