Finding the optimal candidate for shock wave lithotripsy: external validation and comparison of five prediction models

Purpose: To externally validate five previously published predictive models (Ng score, Triple D score, S 3 HoCKwave score, Kim nomogram, Niwa nomogram) for shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) single-session outcomes in patients with a solitary stone in the upper ureter. Methods Patients treated with SWL from September 2011 to December 2019 were included in a retrospective analysis. Patient-related variables were collected from the hospital records. Stone-related data including all measurements were retrieved from computed tomography prior to SWL. We estimated discrimination using area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and clinical net benefit based on decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 384 patients with proximal ureter stones treated with SWL were included in the analysis. Median age was 55.5 years, and 282 (73%) of the sample were men. Median stone size was 8.0 mm. All models significantly predicted the SWL outcomes after one session. S 3 HoCKwave score, Niwa, and Kim nomograms had the highest accuracy in predicting outcomes, with AUC 0.716, 0.714 and 0.701, respectively. These three models outperformed both the Ng (AUC: 0.670) and Triple D (AUC: 0.667) scoring systems, approaching statistical significance ( P  = 0.05). Of all the models, the Niwa nomogram showed the strongest calibration and highest net benefit in DCA. Conclusions The models showed small differences in predictive power. The Niwa nomogram, however, demonstrated acceptable discrimination, the most accurate calibration, and the highest net benefit whilst having relatively simple design. Therefore, it could be useful for counselling patients with a solitary stone in the upper ureter.