High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Middle East’s summer

High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Middle East’s summer | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Middle East’s summer Melissa Latt, Marianna Adinolfi, Paola Mercogliano, Assaf Hochman This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4576383/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 May, 2025 Read the published version in Climatic Change → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the impacts of climate change on wind patterns and wind power potential is crucial for energy planning and resource management, particularly in regions highly vulnerable to climate variability, such as the Middle East. In this study, we utilized a COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulation at an 8km grid spacing to investigate the changes in summer wind patterns over the Middle East and their implications for wind energy potential. Our analysis revealed that COSMO-CLM can effectively capture the broad-scale summer wind patterns over the Middle East. However, considerable uncertainties were observed over coastal and mountainous regions, highlighting the complexity of local wind dynamics. Notably, until 2070, we have identified significant increases of up to 0.7 ms−1 in median surface wind speeds across the Middle East, driven primarily by land-sea temperature contrasts. However, at the 150-meter level, we have observed significant decreases of up to 1.0 ms−1 in median wind speed attributed to changes in frequency and intensity of the Persian Trough synoptic system in a changing climate. Regionally, this decreases median potential wind energy up to 7 GJ within six hours. These findings underscore the importance of considering surface and upper-level wind characteristics when assessing climate change impacts on wind energy resources. Furthermore, our study reveals a spatially heterogeneous pattern of changes in wind energy potential across the region. While decreases in wind energy are evident over much of the Middle East, particularly in inland areas and over the Mediterranean Sea, we have also observed some increases in potential, notably over the Red Sea. In summary, our study highlights significant changes in wind characteristics in a changing climate, with implications for the future energy mix in the Middle East. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and energy planners aiming to harness wind energy resources sustainably in the face of climate change challenges. Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 May, 2025 Read the published version in Climatic Change → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 19 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 17 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4576383","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":320997390,"identity":"1ab45ff9-d45e-4c20-b1ca-2c8b3f74e1e3","order_by":0,"name":"Melissa Latt","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIie3QIQvCQBTA8XcMbuX06rPoJxC0yIL4XcbAZBMsgt4YaPED6MewmCcHWxlY11RWDbMtGLxDNN4WDfcPexfux94GYLP9ZY6I9WjrRxmjHoMaQj6EgkPCfYzYiMCXRCyGetLfhuG5ek2Aupe0GGfeCtzohCYyys5CtjYBUBaQaJarxViyMJPcF5IIRy2mSakIzkZmcr0LtdgaKC9I5GnSe9SQXP0xRiVQVG8BvRiyGpL5+ltSRrEYHnYZdjZsOveMJJXyWb2WXc79W1klK85decxN5Bv7nWiT6zabzWYz9wa1WUcLxMgJlQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3661-0113","institution":"Karlsruhe Institute of Technology: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Melissa","middleName":"","lastName":"Latt","suffix":""},{"id":320997391,"identity":"531594e3-cff3-4560-924c-1f98db5f07a1","order_by":1,"name":"Marianna Adinolfi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change: Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marianna","middleName":"","lastName":"Adinolfi","suffix":""},{"id":320997392,"identity":"7f57461f-0c8f-4043-8f2a-1a225bcf0b46","order_by":2,"name":"Paola Mercogliano","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change: Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paola","middleName":"","lastName":"Mercogliano","suffix":""},{"id":320997393,"identity":"f36873d5-471a-4ede-b697-9f0ae9673a5e","order_by":3,"name":"Assaf Hochman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hebrew University of Jerusalem Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Assaf","middleName":"","lastName":"Hochman","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-13 13:05:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4576383/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4576383/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03951-2","type":"published","date":"2025-05-23T15:57:46+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":83460051,"identity":"e2cb8a3f-d973-4cff-a74c-23e012b1a390","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-26 16:09:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":11581521,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"BlindedManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4576383/v1_covered_dacdc31f-195a-442a-8a26-9f487839674c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"High-resolution projection of wind energy in the Middle East’s summer","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climatic-change","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"clim","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4576383/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4576383/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Understanding the impacts of climate change on wind patterns and wind power potential is crucial for energy planning and resource management, particularly in regions highly vulnerable to climate variability, such as the Middle East. 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