Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology

Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology Matevž Pušnik, Matjaž Česen, Jean-Sébastien Broc, Vesna Bukarica, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Energy Efficiency → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Energy efficiency is crucial for sustainable energy transitions, supporting global climate and energy goals. This paper presents a standardized framework for top-down assessment of future energy efficiency policies using the ODEX methodology, addressing critical gaps in evaluating and comparing policy impacts across Europe. By harmonizing key data on energy consumption, policy measures, and target alignment, the framework ensures consistency, reliability, and comparability, fostering more effective strategies. A key innovation is integrating ex-ante (forecasting) and ex-post (retrospective) evaluations into a single framework. This dual approach illuminates both past performance and future impacts, providing insights into drivers of energy savings and the alignment of national efforts with broader objectives. It also underscores how policy choices and market factors interrelate, informing strategic decisions and refining policy design across the European Union. The paper outlines the methodology’s core components, including recent advancements in the ODEX approach, primary data sources, and practical applications in selected EU countries, such as Croatia and Slovenia. These case studies illustrate the framework’s capacity to detect inefficiencies, identify emerging trends, and offer actionable recommendations for policy improvement. In addition, the research highlights the framework’s scalability and potential replication across diverse national contexts and at the EU level. By bridging the gap between historical performance and future planning, this robust, scalable methodology addresses the urgent need for reliable tools to evaluate and monitor energy efficiency policies. Ultimately, it supports the development of harmonized, evidence-based approaches, bolstering national capacities to meet ambitious energy efficiency targets and advancing broader climate and sustainability objectives. Energy efficiency ODEX methodology Ex-ante and ex-post evaluations Policy impact assessment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Energy Efficiency → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6396551","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":456409489,"identity":"35e78c60-2bad-4da6-88a9-b226b2f6f312","order_by":0,"name":"Matevž Pušnik","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCDgw0VEswgxgH86piRtZwhVQtjYxsRbtFtP3/wMc8fhjyD82cPHpw5z4JdvoH9IV5bzM4kMxvz8DAUG9zISzi4cZsEs8EBHgP8Wg4ks0nOkGBI3HCDx+DgQ5AWBh78fjE7/5j95wwDoJbzZ4Ba5kgwAx32AL+WG8lsDB8SgFoO5Bgc3NgADLEDDAQcduOxscSHAxLFkjeAWmYcAzrsMCG/nE98+CHhj00e3/kzxh97auqS5dvbH3/ApwUKJBJgrGTkiMIL4FrsiNQwCkbBKBgFIwgAAIb5TtKEKmhjAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Jožef Stefan Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matevž","middleName":"","lastName":"Pušnik","suffix":""},{"id":456409490,"identity":"63b05952-ae34-4959-a995-6217b0ac38ac","order_by":1,"name":"Matjaž Česen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jožef Stefan Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matjaž","middleName":"","lastName":"Česen","suffix":""},{"id":456409491,"identity":"3fbfcce0-7fb8-4b40-ad55-3fcdfc2da0fc","order_by":2,"name":"Jean-Sébastien Broc","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jean-Sébastien","middleName":"","lastName":"Broc","suffix":""},{"id":456409493,"identity":"c6bedbf2-1da9-49c8-8fb7-5d431d275d65","order_by":3,"name":"Vesna Bukarica","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Vesna","middleName":"","lastName":"Bukarica","suffix":""},{"id":456409494,"identity":"986bfb7e-dbab-427b-b468-0ec4a2776002","order_by":4,"name":"Jiří Karásek","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Seven","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiří","middleName":"","lastName":"Karásek","suffix":""},{"id":456409495,"identity":"468b8009-3f41-4889-8707-7685ca67be6e","order_by":5,"name":"Wolfgang Eichhammer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wolfgang","middleName":"","lastName":"Eichhammer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-07 17:38:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-025-10399-x","type":"published","date":"2025-11-24T15:58:18+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97178767,"identity":"6d166844-71c4-4465-ac1a-dc6f632a6946","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 16:13:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":729439,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6396551/v1_covered_5d4fd7d1-b92c-4087-8520-26a734010824.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Energy efficiency, ODEX methodology, Ex-ante and ex-post evaluations, Policy impact assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEnergy efficiency is crucial for sustainable energy transitions, supporting global climate and energy goals. This paper presents a standardized framework for top-down assessment of future energy efficiency policies using the ODEX methodology, addressing critical gaps in evaluating and comparing policy impacts across Europe. By harmonizing key data on energy consumption, policy measures, and target alignment, the framework ensures consistency, reliability, and comparability, fostering more effective strategies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA key innovation is integrating ex-ante (forecasting) and ex-post (retrospective) evaluations into a single framework. This dual approach illuminates both past performance and future impacts, providing insights into drivers of energy savings and the alignment of national efforts with broader objectives. It also underscores how policy choices and market factors interrelate, informing strategic decisions and refining policy design across the European Union. The paper outlines the methodology\u0026rsquo;s core components, including recent advancements in the ODEX approach, primary data sources, and practical applications in selected EU countries, such as Croatia and Slovenia. These case studies illustrate the framework\u0026rsquo;s capacity to detect inefficiencies, identify emerging trends, and offer actionable recommendations for policy improvement. In addition, the research highlights the framework\u0026rsquo;s scalability and potential replication across diverse national contexts and at the EU level.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy bridging the gap between historical performance and future planning, this robust, scalable methodology addresses the urgent need for reliable tools to evaluate and monitor energy efficiency policies. Ultimately, it supports the development of harmonized, evidence-based approaches, bolstering national capacities to meet ambitious energy efficiency targets and advancing broader climate and sustainability objectives.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Towards 2030 and Beyond: Assessing Future Energy Efficiency Policies and Trends Using ODEX Methodology","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-15 14:29:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6396551/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"f5f41563-9a54-4c19-94c4-2b01b8eb871c","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-12-01T16:07:33+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6396551","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-025-10399-x","journal":{"identity":"energy-efficiency","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Energy Efficiency"},"publishedOn":"2025-11-24 15:58:18","publishedOnDateReadable":"November 24th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-15 14:29:02","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s12053-025-10399-x","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-025-10399-x","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6396551","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6396551","identity":"rs-6396551","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}