Current and future predicted distribution range of Indian Flying Fox Pteropus medius Temmink, 1825 in Nepal

Abstract Pteropus medius is exclusively distributed in South Asia. Among four species of fruit bats occurring in Nepal, the Indian Flying Fox is the largest of all. Their known roosts are distributed within an elevation range of 75 to 1,322 m asl throughout east west in the Tarai, Chure and Inner-Tarai region and in central Middle Mountains of the country. The species is known to pollinate and disperse seeds of more than 26 families of flowering plants. Most of the known roosts lie within and in the close vicinity of human settlements and farmlands. Recently, impacts of global warming on roost and foraging habitat of fruit bats including flying foxes have been evidenced in different parts of the globe, however, it is still unknown in Nepal. In addition, most of the known roosting colonies of P. medius are outside the protected areas and are vulnerable due to greater threats. Based upon 44 roosts occurrence coordinates of P. medius and six low-correlated bio-climatic variables (r > 0.75), we built habitat suitability models using Maximum Entropy. The current potential distribution of the species covers an area of 38,688 km2 (About 26% of the country’s total area). Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (bio 6), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (bio 19) and Mean Diurnal Range (bio 2) are most influencing predictors. In the future, its overall distribution range in overall will slightly contract, although it will expand at the lower elevations in Tarai, Chure and Inner-Tarai regions. The future distribution is not expected to shift towards northern latitude and higher elevations.