Age-specific Mortality Forecasting In Kazakhstan. Modeling Applying Experience

This study aimed to summarize the results of using the Lee-Carter model and its extensions to predict mortality in Kazakhstan for ten years up to 2033. We analyzed Kazakhstan's age-specific mortality rates, observed annually from 1991 to 2023. Different mortality models were used to predict mortality. Among them Lee-Carter model, Hyndman-Ullah method with regression of scores on exogenous factors, time series analysis methods. The Lee-Carter model and its extensions did not give satisfactory results for predicting mortality in the testing timeframe. Including external socio-economic factors in the model did not improve forecasting accuracy. The accuracy of the forecast increased with a separate analysis of the subpopulations of children and adults. This was because since 1991 in the children subpopulation there has been a pronounced linear downward trend, while in the adult subpopulation, the global trend in mortality dynamics is nonlinear. As a result, it is possible to make forecasts for 7 years with a high degree of accuracy (error <10%) and forecast for the 8th, 9th, and 10th years with a "good" degree of accuracy (error 10-20%). In 2024-2033, a further mortality decline is expected in most age groups. Only in groups over 80 years old is a slight increase in mortality predicted in the coming year, but then a downward trend will be observed again