Volcanic gas hazards from Kolumbo Volcano, Greece: observations and gas transport modelling

Volcanic gas hazards from Kolumbo Volcano, Greece: observations and gas transport modelling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Volcanic gas hazards from Kolumbo Volcano, Greece: observations and gas transport modelling Matteo Cerminara, Peter Baxter, Augusto Neri, R. Stephen J. Sparks, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The 1650 CE Kolumbo (Greece) submarine eruption resulted in the reported deaths of 50 people and thousands of animals on Santorini (Thera) due to exposure to a cloud of noxious volcanic gases. Lack of ash in the cloud indicates that the gas release was unrelated to a magmatic explosive eruption. Medical evidence from historic accounts suggests lethal exposure to CO 2 and H 2 S, which were likely the main hazardous gases, whereas strongly acidic gases such as SO 2 , HCl, and HF, were less relevant due to their high solubility in seawater. Expert elicitation indicates significant uncertainty, with probabilities of next 30-year gas releases ranging in 15-58-93% (5th -50th -95th percentiles) and a 2-17-48% likelihood of the gas cloud reaching Thera. A 4D multiphase fluid dynamics model (ASHEE) is employed to simulate turbulent gas cloud propagation and dilution under scenarios with source and meteorological conditions informed by expert elicitation and ECMWF-ERA5 2005−2016 data. Analytical predictive relationships are then derived through a scaling analysis based on non-dimensional parameters like the Richardson number. Results indicate about 50% probability of the gas cloud reaching Thera, even with a relatively modest volumetric flow rate of 10 3 m 3 s − 1 and a wind speed half of the average. However, hazardous concentrations (above 200 ppm of H 2 S and 10 vol.% of CO 2 ) along the NE coast of Thera are reached if source gas flux exceeds 10 4 m 3 s − 1 . By integrating elicitation outcomes, physical modeling, and probabilistic analysis, this study estimates a 16% and 17% likelihood of hazardous gas exposure for CO 2 and H 2 S, respectively, along the NE coast of Thera in case of formation of a gas density current in the next 30 years. Kolumbo volcano Submarine eruption Gas hazard Numerical simulation Gas transport and dispersion Structured Expert Judgement Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Full Text Additional Declarations Tables are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Supplementary.docx topid01.mp4 topid02.mp4 topid03.mp4 topid04.mp4 topid05.mp4 topid06.mp4 Table01.docx Table02.docx Table03.docx Table04.docx Table05.docx Table06.docx Table07.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor Revisions 30 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Apr, 2025 Editor invited by journal 24 Feb, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 19 Feb, 2025 First submitted to journal 18 Feb, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6058186","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":437062326,"identity":"f216cc0e-cd43-44d9-a8a1-214056f9994a","order_by":0,"name":"Matteo Cerminara","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCDAyCCnxnMlsCjjpmxAUWLZDNECx49SFrAwOAAA35rdNvPH3/woYJBnl/6dOLhgpp78sbHeQ+/5mGwqMOlxexMMmPjjDMMhjP7cjccnnGs2HDbYb40ax48DjM7kMzYzNvGkGBwhnfDYR62BMZth3nMDGfg03L+MWPzX6AWe7CWfwn2m5sJabkBtIURZAsPUAtvW0LiBmYe4wcf8Gp5bDiz54yE4QyQLbx9CckzgA5j+GAgIdmA02GJDz78qLCR5+/h3fyZ51uCbX//GeMPCRV1/LhsgQJUV7BJMBgQ0IAOmD+QqGEUjIJRMAqGNwAAxjJSpKLynDQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5155-5872","institution":"Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Pisa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matteo","middleName":"","lastName":"Cerminara","suffix":""},{"id":437062327,"identity":"4abf5ebd-415a-4ddb-8ca8-2a18cd611669","order_by":1,"name":"Peter Baxter","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Baxter","suffix":""},{"id":437062328,"identity":"e459235a-5a4b-4b22-b04e-26f36f3deec9","order_by":2,"name":"Augusto Neri","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Pisa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Augusto","middleName":"","lastName":"Neri","suffix":""},{"id":437062329,"identity":"36d181bd-a496-4edb-a6b7-354eadeabacf","order_by":3,"name":"R. Stephen J. Sparks","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bristol","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"R.","middleName":"Stephen J.","lastName":"Sparks","suffix":""},{"id":437062330,"identity":"af189393-7af5-4669-9608-c55d617b429b","order_by":4,"name":"Orlando Vaselli","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Florence: Universita degli Studi di Firenze","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Orlando","middleName":"","lastName":"Vaselli","suffix":""},{"id":437062331,"identity":"a0edca21-828f-4c69-8abc-aa91dd69f5bf","order_by":5,"name":"Georges Vougioukalakis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hellenic Survey of Geology and Mineral Exploration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Georges","middleName":"","lastName":"Vougioukalakis","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-18 17:13:42","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-025-01903-3","type":"published","date":"2025-11-10T15:57:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81699947,"identity":"fa53cf77-9425-4b4c-81d0-33c24c8089c6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:05","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":2896829,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSketch of the phenomenology and relevant parameters of the scenario considered in this study (see Appendix C for the list of symbols). Panel a), not to scale. The gas from Kolumbo volcano travels through the sea dissolving high soluble gases like SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e. While the flow temperature equilibrates with the sea, magmatic water condensate. The resulting cloud, composed mainly by the remaining incondensable magmatic gases, emerges from the sea level, forming a gravity current. Panel b): top view of one of the numerical simulations (ID02, see Table 1). The gas flow spreads under the combined effect of both gravity and wind, when wind direction is towards Thera.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig01.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/b00d920156f2669e12a4cfd2.png"},{"id":81700018,"identity":"36956b28-a849-4f85-b768-ebf340ccbe69","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:19","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":183846,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eStatistics of wind speed (m s\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e) and direction (degrees) at sea level over the Kolumbo volcano. Wind direction refers to the angle from which the wind blows. Angles are computed from the north direction rotating clockwise. The left panel displays the distribution derived from data collected throughout the year, while the right panel focuses solely on data from the month of September. The red boxes emphasize wind directions pointing from Kolumbo to Thera.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig02.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/d97515e3d5e02d0edbed95e1.png"},{"id":81699751,"identity":"7fceeb19-6ed7-4ec8-939c-5feea9eaf850","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:03:54","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":735703,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePanel a) depicts the extent of gas flow invasion for three simulations outlined in subsequent sections after 1 hour of evolution. This visualization includes the spreading angle β and the position of Thera relative to the source situated above the Kolumbo crater. Panels b) and c) illustrate the probability of impacting Thera as a function of the spreading angle, utilizing wind direction data from all-year (b) and September (c) datasets, respectively. Cases with β=0°,45°,120° are highlighted with red dots.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig03.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/9e20b1d0605fefabd059a40b.png"},{"id":81703864,"identity":"3ebdd080-b3f5-4897-ac56-7ae827691af2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:12:15","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":96240,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProbability density function of the gas volumetric flow rate as derived from elicitation questions TQ17d,e; TQ16b2. Vertical black lines indicate 5\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e, 50\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e, and 95\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e percentiles.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig04.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/665932edb2a1d553209cda72.png"},{"id":81700021,"identity":"64bae3b9-fa90-4104-81ed-774b0cdb4813","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:19","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1679345,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTop view of gravity current ID01 after 1 h of evolution. The isosurface is drawn at the threshold gas concentration ϵ\u003csub\u003eg\u003c/sub\u003e=2.2 vol.%. The colormap indicates the height of the isosurface. The 7 white lines represent segments from line1 (perpendicular to wind) to line7 (parallel to wind), chosen for measuring gas content at 1.5 m a.s.l.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig05.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/a64ea66b1b701a23d36b4c68.png"},{"id":81699795,"identity":"8febd046-fffa-4028-a80b-4f646cf3f32e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:03:56","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1649788,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProfiles of gas mass fraction, horizontal velocity, and horizontal velocity direction (columns) are displayed along directions line1 to line7 (rows). Positive distance from the source corresponds to the segments shown in Fig. 5. These profiles are presented at intervals of 20 s within the time interval 20-3600 s. The black profiles correspond to the last time, while the thin blue lines represent the atmospheric conditions. In the last column, the horizontal thin grey lines indicate the direction of each line. The other scenarios are available in supplementary material Figs. SM7-SM12.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig06.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/f24e57880e3dc600afdae298.png"},{"id":81700008,"identity":"ca556010-2382-4b0b-8da5-c95e22475d46","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:18","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":3522296,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVertical slice of gravity current ID01 after 20 min of evolution. The colormap shows the gas concentration, drawn above the flow and wind streamlines. Vertical scale is exaggerated 100 times with respect to the horizontal, to enable visualization of both the upwind (negative distances) and downwind parts of the flow.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig07.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/a6c90d0f08fe4c807bfe9174.png"},{"id":81700016,"identity":"df2d4c57-70a2-4009-b42a-3a1535579641","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:19","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":327137,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig08.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/2e1fba0962660d6a8cca81ef.png"},{"id":81700005,"identity":"b4495f64-b6d6-4321-b606-708a93bc2f3e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:17","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":370739,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig09.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/63cc7a875148f79e0bc37b56.png"},{"id":81699993,"identity":"2cd80717-96bd-4165-85c7-f6d56d9b6c2a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:15","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":462693,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/a156b85c80920e05ab185b4a.png"},{"id":81700248,"identity":"c87576ab-39cc-406e-ade6-5e5690cc5245","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:45","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"Figure 11","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":280299,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/d46f52e64ce8e4f4197f70e4.png"},{"id":81703687,"identity":"4eaf4d25-ff4a-4875-a10d-3316c6bad348","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:11:55","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"Figure 12","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":476050,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSee image above for figure legend\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/f2dab3377a249a0a8b560e6c.png"},{"id":81700085,"identity":"2871bd8f-0627-4040-aac4-3ac5b0f37cdd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:24","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"Figure 13","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":114896,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eConcentration distributions of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e (panel a) and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS (panel b) at 8 km from Kolumbo. Vertical black lines indicate the 10% and 200 ppm thresholds. The probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are 20.5% and a 27.1% for CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig13.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/d4252785f096b47c31eef911.png"},{"id":81700104,"identity":"e5cf1b71-f541-48d3-b39d-b7b296ae3b81","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:25","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"Figure 14","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":86428,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eConcentration distributions of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e (panel a) and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS (panel b) at 8 km from Kolumbo. Vertical black lines indicate the 10% and 200 ppm thresholds. Distributions are obtained by using the 5\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (green), 50\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (orange), and 95\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (blue) percentiles of the gas flow rate.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig14.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/124a74809bc27f8704ce6b2c.png"},{"id":81700025,"identity":"647d2eb4-8423-4fa5-93a3-c73ecf421629","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:19","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"Figure 15","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":107657,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSpreading angle distribution at 8 km from Kolumbo, when both source and wind variability is considered (panel a) or when the 5\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (green), 50\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (orange), and 95\u003csup\u003eth\u003c/sup\u003e (blue) percentiles of gas flow rate are used as source conditions (panel b).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig15.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/6560f2ee34a0756d0b3ebaa3.png"},{"id":81699880,"identity":"179949fd-081f-4612-a7ea-8b0610a0ddc1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:00","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"Figure 16","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":75866,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProbability to have a gas flow 8 km from Kolumbo with CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e concentration above 10% (panel a) or H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS concentration above 200 ppm (panel b) as a function of the direction from Kolumbo. The grey shadowed area indicates the directions where Thera is seen from Kolumbo.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"fig16.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/cb69d19949955d0f520a083f.png"},{"id":96105279,"identity":"b95c0b0a-b298-4748-b1f6-bbcb08309b78","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-17 16:10:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4572866,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1_covered_986ae996-0806-495b-9eb3-74a6372b1467.pdf"},{"id":81700004,"identity":"a1e26fe7-9543-4a01-bb56-210b2bc700d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:04:17","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":7942193,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementary.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/34b58bb1bd6db15dfec2d1bf.docx"},{"id":81703867,"identity":"a04e6548-31b4-4893-93dd-e8b08df6461e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 13:12:19","extension":"mp4","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":13872289,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"topid01.mp4","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6058186/v1/2ce107a94a47b05fc292381b.mp4"},{"id":81699967,"identity":"ce56d99c-3305-45dc-916b-9c729e11cbc0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-30 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modelling","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-volcanology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"buvo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Volcanology](http://link.springer.com/journal/445)","snPcode":"445","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/buvo/default2.aspx","title":"Bulletin of Volcanology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Kolumbo volcano, Submarine eruption, Gas hazard, Numerical simulation, Gas transport and dispersion, Structured Expert Judgement","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe 1650 CE Kolumbo (Greece) submarine eruption resulted in the reported deaths of 50 people and thousands of animals on Santorini (Thera) due to exposure to a cloud of noxious volcanic gases. Lack of ash in the cloud indicates that the gas release was unrelated to a magmatic explosive eruption. Medical evidence from historic accounts suggests lethal exposure to CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS, which were likely the main hazardous gases, whereas strongly acidic gases such as SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e, HCl, and HF, were less relevant due to their high solubility in seawater. Expert elicitation indicates significant uncertainty, with probabilities of next 30-year gas releases ranging in 15-58-93% (5th -50th -95th percentiles) and a 2-17-48% likelihood of the gas cloud reaching Thera. A 4D multiphase fluid dynamics model (ASHEE) is employed to simulate turbulent gas cloud propagation and dilution under scenarios with source and meteorological conditions informed by expert elicitation and ECMWF-ERA5 2005\u0026minus;2016 data. Analytical predictive relationships are then derived through a scaling analysis based on non-dimensional parameters like the Richardson number. Results indicate about 50% probability of the gas cloud reaching Thera, even with a relatively modest volumetric flow rate of 10\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e s\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e and a wind speed half of the average. However, hazardous concentrations (above 200 ppm of H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS and 10 vol.% of CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e) along the NE coast of Thera are reached if source gas flux exceeds 10\u003csup\u003e4\u003c/sup\u003e m\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e s\u003csup\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1\u003c/sup\u003e. By integrating elicitation outcomes, physical modeling, and probabilistic analysis, this study estimates a 16% and 17% likelihood of hazardous gas exposure for CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e and H\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eS, respectively, along the NE coast of Thera in case of formation of a gas density current in the next 30 years.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Volcanic gas hazards from Kolumbo Volcano, Greece: observations and gas transport modelling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-30 12:19:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6058186/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Minor Revisions","date":"2025-06-30T13:48:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-04-01T20:43:01+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-01T20:08:15+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"Bulletin of Volcanology","date":"2025-02-24T19:32:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-02-19T05:35:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Bulletin of Volcanology","date":"2025-02-18T12:08:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-volcanology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"buvo","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Volcanology](http://link.springer.com/journal/445)","snPcode":"445","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/buvo/default2.aspx","title":"Bulletin of Volcanology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"dc5725bc-67ce-4e69-b441-adbe6ec03ec7","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-17T16:06:20+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6058186","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-025-01903-3","journal":{"identity":"bulletin-of-volcanology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Bulletin of Volcanology"},"publishedOn":"2025-11-10 15:57:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"November 10th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-30 12:19:58","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00445-025-01903-3","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-025-01903-3","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6058186","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6058186","identity":"rs-6058186","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}