Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis

Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis Gemma Gerber, Martin Jung, Piero Visconti This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8214448/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Fire Ecology → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Climate change is intensifying wildfire regimes across European forests, from Mediterranean to temperate and boreal biomes, creating urgent management challenges. Fire acts as a powerful selective filter with highly variable, context-dependent effects, yet a taxonomically comprehensive synthesis quantifying fire impacts on abundance across European forests remains absent. Regional understanding is critical because European forests have distinctive ecological characteristics and management histories compared to more extensively studied fire-prone ecosystems. Results We conducted a PRISMA-aligned systematic review and meta-analysis of 29 studies (n = 2192 effect sizes) to assess how fire characteristics (type, severity, time since fire) and environmental context (ecoregion, biome) affect taxa across European forests, focusing exclusively on abundance as a direct indicator of population response to disturbance. Taxonomic identity emerged as the strongest predictor of post-fire responses. Fire-sensitive taxa ( Gastropoda , Passeriformes , bryophytes) showed severe declines, bryophytes even at low fire severity, while fire-opportunistic taxa ( Hemiptera , Lepidoptera , Coleoptera , some vascular plants) showed dramatic increases, particularly after high-severity fires and during one to five years post-fire. Mediterranean forests showed less negative overall responses than temperate and boreal forests, yet fire-sensitive taxa declined severely even there. Critical data gaps, especially absence of prescribed fire data for fire-sensitive taxa and limited post-fire recovery monitoring, constrain management guidance. High residual heterogeneity indicated unmeasured factors (burn frequency, fire seasonality, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, functional traits) play significant but inconsistently reported roles. Conclusions These findings demonstrate ecological trade-offs: fire regimes benefiting fire-opportunistic taxa devastate fire-sensitive taxa. As climate change drives novel fire regimes across Europe, evidence-based fire management requires landscape-scale strategies incorporating spatial heterogeneity, refugia conservation, and explicit consideration of taxonomic trade-offs. However, critical data limitations constrain robust management guidance. Standardized, long-term monitoring protocols across successional stages, fire events, and taxonomic groups, functional traits, consistent reporting of fire characteristics, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, is essential. Combined with improved data sharing, this will enable adaptive management frameworks that balance wildfire risk reduction with biodiversity conservation in an era of unprecedented fire regime change. meta-analysis fire ecology European forests abundance biodiversity wildfire prescribed fire taxonomic response Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files GerberWildfireBioDivMetaAnalysisFireEcologySMFirstSubmission.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Fire Ecology → Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 01 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 27 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8214448","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":553928578,"identity":"778bc72a-2a15-400e-af83-fa56930a29f7","order_by":0,"name":"Gemma 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Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"meta-analysis, fire ecology, European forests, abundance, biodiversity, wildfire, prescribed fire, taxonomic response","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8214448/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8214448/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eClimate change is intensifying wildfire regimes across European forests, from Mediterranean to temperate and boreal biomes, creating urgent management challenges. Fire acts as a powerful selective filter with highly variable, context-dependent effects, yet a taxonomically comprehensive synthesis quantifying fire impacts on abundance across European forests remains absent. Regional understanding is critical because European forests have distinctive ecological characteristics and management histories compared to more extensively studied fire-prone ecosystems.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe conducted a PRISMA-aligned systematic review and meta-analysis of 29 studies (n\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2192 effect sizes) to assess how fire characteristics (type, severity, time since fire) and environmental context (ecoregion, biome) affect taxa across European forests, focusing exclusively on abundance as a direct indicator of population response to disturbance. Taxonomic identity emerged as the strongest predictor of post-fire responses. Fire-sensitive taxa (\u003cem\u003eGastropoda\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003ePasseriformes\u003c/em\u003e, bryophytes) showed severe declines, bryophytes even at low fire severity, while fire-opportunistic taxa (\u003cem\u003eHemiptera\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eLepidoptera\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eColeoptera\u003c/em\u003e, some vascular plants) showed dramatic increases, particularly after high-severity fires and during one to five years post-fire. Mediterranean forests showed less negative overall responses than temperate and boreal forests, yet fire-sensitive taxa declined severely even there. Critical data gaps, especially absence of prescribed fire data for fire-sensitive taxa and limited post-fire recovery monitoring, constrain management guidance. High residual heterogeneity indicated unmeasured factors (burn frequency, fire seasonality, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, functional traits) play significant but inconsistently reported roles.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThese findings demonstrate ecological trade-offs: fire regimes benefiting fire-opportunistic taxa devastate fire-sensitive taxa. As climate change drives novel fire regimes across Europe, evidence-based fire management requires landscape-scale strategies incorporating spatial heterogeneity, refugia conservation, and explicit consideration of taxonomic trade-offs. However, critical data limitations constrain robust management guidance. Standardized, long-term monitoring protocols across successional stages, fire events, and taxonomic groups, functional traits, consistent reporting of fire characteristics, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, is essential. Combined with improved data sharing, this will enable adaptive management frameworks that balance wildfire risk reduction with biodiversity conservation in an era of unprecedented fire regime change.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-analysis","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-03 10:42:49","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8214448/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-01T21:12:17+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-27T10:31:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-11-27T10:23:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Fire Ecology","date":"2025-11-26T15:12:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"fire-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"feco","sideBox":"Learn more about [Fire Ecology](https://www.springer.com/journal/42408)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/feco/default.aspx","title":"Fire Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fa34439e-c63f-467e-98e8-a6e3732ec9ef","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-07T16:01:24+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-8214448","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00471-x","journal":{"identity":"fire-ecology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Fire Ecology"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-01 15:58:19","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 1st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-03 10:42:49","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s42408-026-00471-x","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00471-x","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8214448","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8214448","identity":"rs-8214448","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}