A simple personalised prediction model for hip fracture risk based on mechanistic parameters

A simple personalised prediction model for hip fracture risk based on mechanistic parameters | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A simple personalised prediction model for hip fracture risk based on mechanistic parameters Christina Wapp, Yvan Gugler, Paula Cameron, Alice Dudle, Daniela Frauchiger, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7451048/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology → Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Fragility hip fractures in older adults are a major burden for the individual and the society, as they result in increased morbidity, mortality and substantial health care expenditure. Most hip fractures are caused by falls, resulting in an impact on the postero-lateral aspect of the hip, inducing a force that exceeds the femoral bone strength. The risk of fracture depends on the rate of falling, the fall-induced impact force, and the femoral bone strength. This article presents the framework of a novel fragility hip fracture risk calculator based on a combined mechanistic and stochastic modelling approach. The model integrates the stochastic aspects of a fall and its dynamics together with a 1D mechanical model predicting the impact force in the hip to calculate a one-year absolute fracture risk. The required input parameters are based on QCT images, but can be substituted with more accessible anthropometric and densitometric data. To demonstrate how the parameters are extracted from clinical data and how the model is calibrated, data from the AFFIRM-CT cohort were used. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, confirming that the fall rate, the trochanteric soft tissue thickness and the bone strength are the dominating parameters influencing the risk of fragility hip fractures. Furthermore, output variables such as the predicted impact velocity and impact force aligned well with experimental data. Thus, the model is able to reflect observations from empirical data, indicating that it can capture the intrinsic aspects that define the risk of fragility hip fractures. hip fracture fracture risk fragility fracture falls impact force prediction Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files suppmat.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 28 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 27 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 31 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 25 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7451048","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":534479447,"identity":"b6868d6e-1c19-473a-9e2f-d5efc9a5706d","order_by":0,"name":"Christina 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