Investigating a Potential New Antarctic Sea Ice State using an Atmosphere-based Reconstruction during 2021-2023

Investigating a Potential New Antarctic Sea Ice State using an Atmosphere-based Reconstruction during 2021-2023 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Investigating a Potential New Antarctic Sea Ice State using an Atmosphere-based Reconstruction during 2021-2023 Nico Sartori, Ryan L Fogt This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427646/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The persistence of below normal Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) since 2017 after decades of decline possibly suggests a new Antarctic sea ice regime, from largely wind-driven variability prior to 2015, with more oceanic influence after 2015. To investigate this further, here we make use of a large ensemble of seasonal Antarctic SIE reconstructions calibrated during 1979-2020, before many of the observed record lows. Since these reconstructions are primarily based on atmospheric predictor variables, examining their performance in recent years (2021-2023) helps to better understand the potential for a new Antarctic sea ice state and more robustly assess the skill of these reconstructions. When calibrated to observations from 1979-2023, overall the reconstruction model performs only slightly lower than the original version, and generally remains stationary through time. However, there are marked regional disparities in model performance when predicting the recent extremes using the original reconstruction model, whereby the reconstruction only reliably captures these anomalies in the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas. The continued predictive power and model performance across much of West Antarctica compared to East Antarctica suggests the possibility of a continued wind-driven role across much of West Antarctica for recent extremes, and a stronger oceanic thermodynamic role in much of East Antarctica. Finally, while the reconstructions rarely produce negative Antarctic SIE anomalies as low as observed in winter 2023, the reconstruction model does indicate in these cases connections to a strong tropically-driven component, at least partially consistent with recent observed changes in the Ross Sea. Antarctica sea ice extent reconstructions climate variability Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 19 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7427646","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512680678,"identity":"7e2a8f8d-9a84-4a08-9173-f1a8b369e083","order_by":0,"name":"Nico Sartori","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ohio University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nico","middleName":"","lastName":"Sartori","suffix":""},{"id":512680679,"identity":"fa8fffad-da74-4b36-9873-e712e7e89e9d","order_by":1,"name":"Ryan L Fogt","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYQWcGQwAaieYjRwnOAgbGB4QzJWhjbGBIYiNfC3n79ceU8mzw+9gbGB2/biNHCc6aw8ey2tGI2ngPMhnOJ0WIvkZPY2LjtcGKbRAKbNC9RtoC1zAFrYf9NpJb0g42NDRBbmInTwnOGcWbDsbTENp6DzZJzzhGjhb39wceGGpvE+e3NBz+8KSNCC1CTAZQBjFIiAfsDYlWOglEwCkbBSAUARzY2Yql+fb4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5398-3990","institution":"Ohio University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ryan","middleName":"L","lastName":"Fogt","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-21 15:29:49","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427646/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427646/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08070-x","type":"published","date":"2026-02-05T15:57:15+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102233973,"identity":"66de16a0-3dcc-4493-8b49-af56e13d809f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-09 16:01:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1637832,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SartoriFogtCLDfinal2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7427646/v1_covered_f296ff9a-8282-44ad-b14c-bf7ada9f2585.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Investigating a Potential New Antarctic Sea Ice State using an Atmosphere-based Reconstruction during 2021-2023","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Antarctica, sea ice extent, reconstructions, climate variability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427646/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427646/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The persistence of below normal Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) since 2017 after decades of decline possibly suggests a new Antarctic sea ice regime, from largely wind-driven variability prior to 2015, with more oceanic influence after 2015. 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The continued predictive power and model performance across much of West Antarctica compared to East Antarctica suggests the possibility of a continued wind-driven role across much of West Antarctica for recent extremes, and a stronger oceanic thermodynamic role in much of East Antarctica. 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