Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs

Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Théo Rouhette, Russell Horowitz, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Limiting global warming to well-below 2°C necessitates profound decarbonization, but how to distribute mitigation efforts over sectors remains a widely debated issue. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) traditionally rely on "Least-Cost" optimization to answer this question, the resulting sectoral allocations vary widely and ignore impacts on other potential policy objectives. Connecting an IAM with portfolio analysis, this study applies a novel methodology to evaluate how sector-specific mitigation actions impact key indicators from Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, health, water, economy, and land, and to identify Pareto-optimal and Paris-compliant mitigation portfolios that reveal the trade-offs between other sustainable development priorities. Furthermore, we define "SDG-balanced" portfolios that outperform standard least-cost scenarios across all five SDG indicators for an equivalent carbon budget. Our findings demonstrate that the simultaneous evaluation of a broader set of policy priorities is crucial to provide truly policy-relevant guidance for the climate transition. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy economics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7466126","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":508808782,"identity":"41312b71-6991-4ce8-b168-95cf0c3d1899","order_by":0,"name":"Dirk-Jan van de Ven","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABHklEQVRIie2QMUvDQBTHrwQuy8Vbc0TrV3ghECgd/CoVIV0CBlwEA16XTNauyeTXcLxwcF2CdYzUQQg46ZSpg2ADpdNFOwreb3g8/o8ff3gIGQx/ESG6aXVj0CCU7vODFCtASB2ioL2Cvd3ys3JUCuxuHsdDWM7VTZLiS0pl2V6nr4h6y2edwoTAbF5NA6ieonWujkdFHl2wSr0jdh8nOgWEsMDJ5HmRx+Ha4RigJsBmXCKoyKRP8b8yeVs8fIRXDrfgbLVqN78og2bbMqEuCa1OARTjXYut/QET5aw5yab+gsSBlysFbh2FI64kYXdE/7FaivIzG59iu/LbJE2BLmTzwlM5pMR+0zpuybU52lYQ0F5oj9HR02IwGAz/jW/4MGeHdsvKYAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9120-564X","institution":"Basque Centre for Climate Change","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dirk-Jan","middleName":"van","lastName":"de Ven","suffix":""},{"id":508808783,"identity":"07b0a1b0-1706-405e-b358-e0613e599384","order_by":1,"name":"Clàudia Rodés-Bachs","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6696-7685","institution":"Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Clàudia","middleName":"","lastName":"Rodés-Bachs","suffix":""},{"id":508808784,"identity":"17e08fbc-dc44-4c2e-9bf5-3f272ed76fc7","order_by":2,"name":"Théo Rouhette","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Basque Centre for Climate Change","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Théo","middleName":"","lastName":"Rouhette","suffix":""},{"id":508808785,"identity":"9ca6a4f9-1270-419f-a12c-02184946c803","order_by":3,"name":"Russell Horowitz","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Basque Centre for Climate Change","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Russell","middleName":"","lastName":"Horowitz","suffix":""},{"id":508808786,"identity":"03824005-5813-4f82-9608-b8c3986dc5dd","order_by":4,"name":"Jon Sampedro","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2277-1530","institution":"Basque Center for Climate Change","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jon","middleName":"","lastName":"Sampedro","suffix":""},{"id":508808787,"identity":"1cef0edf-e46f-4a68-b4fc-c62825c9a0d1","order_by":5,"name":"Alexandros Nikas","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6795-3848","institution":"National Technical University of Athens","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alexandros","middleName":"","lastName":"Nikas","suffix":""},{"id":508808788,"identity":"765b7101-980f-4f33-9366-e02c8aeac8d6","order_by":6,"name":"Natasha Frilingou","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9359-9216","institution":"National Technical University of Athens","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Natasha","middleName":"","lastName":"Frilingou","suffix":""},{"id":508808789,"identity":"4c7f7b84-0dd7-4ac3-9242-403aa85c7ef8","order_by":7,"name":"Xin Zhao","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1801-4393","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":508808790,"identity":"d8e3c47f-5594-4bfe-83fe-5a377ac07394","order_by":8,"name":"Abhishek Chaudhary","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6602-7279","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abhishek","middleName":"","lastName":"Chaudhary","suffix":""},{"id":508808791,"identity":"a04aeae3-f213-42e0-aa9c-c6896b16ba6f","order_by":9,"name":"Gokul Iyer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3565-7526","institution":"University of Maryland","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gokul","middleName":"","lastName":"Iyer","suffix":""},{"id":508808792,"identity":"4857c497-d5d4-45d0-a381-ae859bd551d4","order_by":10,"name":"Jorge Moreno","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1997-2996","institution":"Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorge","middleName":"","lastName":"Moreno","suffix":""},{"id":508808793,"identity":"d5f3cfc6-2cf8-4ce6-87c6-21e7571f01c6","order_by":11,"name":"Konstantinos Koasidis","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3656-4874","institution":"School of Electrical \u0026 Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Konstantinos","middleName":"","lastName":"Koasidis","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-26 21:05:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","type":"published","date":"2026-04-07T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106389895,"identity":"bed6f118-4ccb-4129-99eb-a34e2671c31b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 07:07:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1557236,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OptimSectorSDGdraft04clean.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7466126/v1_covered_500521d1-460b-43c5-9269-7da90bf68027.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Limiting global warming to well-below 2°C necessitates profound decarbonization, but how to distribute mitigation efforts over sectors remains a widely debated issue. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) traditionally rely on \"Least-Cost\" optimization to answer this question, the resulting sectoral allocations vary widely and ignore impacts on other potential policy objectives. Connecting an IAM with portfolio analysis, this study applies a novel methodology to evaluate how sector-specific mitigation actions impact key indicators from Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, health, water, economy, and land, and to identify Pareto-optimal and Paris-compliant mitigation portfolios that reveal the trade-offs between other sustainable development priorities. Furthermore, we define \"SDG-balanced\" portfolios that outperform standard least-cost scenarios across all five SDG indicators for an equivalent carbon budget. Our findings demonstrate that the simultaneous evaluation of a broader set of policy priorities is crucial to provide truly policy-relevant guidance for the climate transition.","manuscriptTitle":"Beyond “Least-Cost” allocation: Optimising sectoral contributions for Paris-compatible mitigation targets over multiple SDG trade-offs","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-03 03:18:09","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7466126/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fba0f754-2b6f-4e28-a76f-8f07627e69f1","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":54034603,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":54034604,"name":"Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy economics"},{"id":54034605,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-08T07:07:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7466126","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","journal":{"identity":"nature-climate-change","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Nature Climate Change"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-07 04:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 7th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-03 03:18:09","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7466126","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7466126","identity":"rs-7466126","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}