Gimbach et al (2022 preprint) Impact of COVID-19 on ADHD medicine consumption

The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication consumption globally and nationally using pharmaceutical sales data from 2014 to 2021 across 47 countries and regions. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was applied to the time series until the end of 2019 at country level and used for the prediction of the ADHD medication consumption in 2020 and 2021. The deviations from the actual to the forecasted sales, which simulate the development without the emergence of COVID-19, yield estimates for the pandemic’s impact. In 36 of the 47 countries and regions, the actual sales in 2020 were lower than predicted, with an average relative drop of 6.23% in defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day at country-level. In 2021, most countries recorded actually higher ADHD medication use than predicted at the end of 2019. On average, the consumption increased per country by 1.60%. The findings suggest that the pandemic led to a substantially lower consumption of ADHD medication in 2020. However, in 2021 the pandemic had an accelerating effect as the increasing consumption trends are more pronounced than before the pandemic.