Building Prediction Models for 30-Day Readmissions Among ICU Patients Using Both Structured and Unstructured Data in Electronic Health Records

ICU readmissions are associated with poor outcomes for patients and poor performance of hospitals. Patients who are readmitted have an increased risk of in-hospital deaths; hospitals with a higher readmission rate have a reduced profitability, due to an increase in cost and reduced payments from Medicare and Medicaid programs. Predicting a patient’s likelihood of being readmitted to the ICU can help reduce early discharges, the risk of in-hospital deaths, and help increase profitability. In this study, we built and evaluated multiple machine learning models to predict 30-day readmission rates of ICU patients in the MIMIC-III database. We used both the structured data including demographics, laboratory tests, comorbidities, and unstructured discharge summaries as the predictors and evaluated different combinations of features. The best performing model in this study Logistic Regression achieved an AUROC of 75.7%. This study shows the potential of leveraging machine learning and deep learning for predicting ICU readmissions.