COVID -19 in a Nigerian University: Modelling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 on an Average University Campus.

Background: Currently, the world is overwhelmed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a highly virulent virus that causes influenza-like symptoms. University administrators are confronted with challenges concerning coronavirus preparedness and response for the resumption of safe campus activities. This study is aimed at assisting the average Nigerian university in immediate COVID -19 preparation and response. Methods: We adopted the SEIR deterministic model to appraise the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among University staff and students, and evaluated the breadth of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies required to safely return its community to campus. The model was parameterized to fit the resident on campus situation. The frequencies of viral screening and testing, probabilistic sensitivity analysis of model parameter was explored in this study. Results: Weekly COVID -19 screening reduced the cumulative incidence by 15% and 55.7% among university staff and students respectively. PCR testing delay of 2-,3-,4-and 7- days reduced overall semester incidence by 65.7%, 56.9%, 50.8% and 34.4% among students; 23.5%, 22.8%, 20.5% and 16.9% among university staff. Conclusion: Our simulations have revealed that extensive testing of on-campus community population may be required to curb disease explosion. Although cases of Hospitalization and deaths may occur, community import of COVID -19 can be curtailed with effective testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine.