Spatiotemporal trends and driving factors of pine wilt disease in China

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is considered the most serious invasive alien species threatening China's forestry ecology and economy. Since it first invaded China in 1982, it has spread to 18 provinces in 2020. In order to clarify its spatial distribution and drivers of range expansion, we collected census data of pine wilt disease (PWD) from 2010 to 2020, as well as climate and anthropogenic active data. The results of centroid analysis of PWD-affected region in China showed that the center of PWD occurrence was located at about 29°~29.5°N in northern Jiangxi Province. The comparison of the north-south boundary and centroid of the distribution area of B.xylophilus in North America (the native range) and China showed that the centroid of B.xylophilus in China was more southerly by about 10.52°, and its northern boundary in China was comparitively south of its native range, indicating the potential that B.xylophilus will continue to spread northwards in the future. The impact of climate (temperature, precipitation, wind speed) and anthropogenic factors (road network density, gross product) on PWD was analyzed using a random forest classification model. The results show that temperature and road network density have a significant impact on PWD damage density. The influence of precipitation, wind speed and gross production value on PWD damage density was not significant. The study provided a theoretical basis for PWD prevention and control in areas with similar geographical environments.