From flowering to grain filling: thermal sensitivity and yield response of Arabica coffee under climatic variability

From flowering to grain filling: thermal sensitivity and yield response of Arabica coffee under climatic variability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article From flowering to grain filling: thermal sensitivity and yield response of Arabica coffee under climatic variability Marcus Vinicius Oliveira Noronha, João Paulo Silva, Marcos Augusto Plachi, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8680648/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract CONTEXT : Coffee yield is influenced by climatic factors, with temperature and water availability being key determinants. OBJECTIVE : To assess the effects of climate variability on the yield of Arabica coffee cultivars across phenological phases and to validate an agrometeorological model at local and regional scales using yield–climate time-series data from the Volcanic Region of Poços de Caldas. METHODS : The Arabica coffee cultivars Mundo Novo 376/4, Catuaí IAC 144, and Bourbon Vermelho were evaluated across four phenological phases. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were applied for each phenological phase and production year between yield and climatic variables, along with the Mann–Kendall test to detect monotonic trends in climatic data. The agrometeorological model was evaluated at different analytical scales and under distinct cultivars and yield scenarios, using historical data from 2011 to 2024. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION : The grain-filling phase was the most sensitive to increasing temperature, while flowering showed a rising warming trend, increasing its vulnerability. Cultivars differed in their thermal and water tolerance, with Bourbon Vermelho showing high vegetative resilience but marked reproductive susceptibility. The model performed well at the regional scale (R² = 0.93; RMSE = 453 kg ha -1 ), particularly within the Volcanic Region, but exhibited limited accuracy at the plot scale due to local variability. Estimated yield losses were mainly associated with water deficit, followed by frost events, while thermal penalties were minimal. SIGNIFICANCE : Improvement of climate-resilience strategies and mitigation of climate-change impacts on coffee cultivation. Thermal stress Phenological stages Coffee cultivars Temperature trends Agrometeorology Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8680648","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":579721894,"identity":"c15dd4f7-0cad-4549-a764-43e484eaf561","order_by":0,"name":"Marcus Vinicius Oliveira 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Agrometeorology","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8680648/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8680648/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCONTEXT\u003c/strong\u003e: Coffee yield is influenced by climatic factors, with temperature and water availability being key determinants.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOBJECTIVE\u003c/strong\u003e: To assess the effects of climate variability on the yield of Arabica coffee cultivars across phenological phases and to validate an agrometeorological model at local and regional scales using yield–climate time-series data from the Volcanic Region of Poços de Caldas.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMETHODS\u003c/strong\u003e: The Arabica coffee cultivars Mundo Novo 376/4, Catuaí IAC 144, and Bourbon Vermelho were evaluated across four phenological phases. 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