Scenario-based Analysis of the Impacts of Lake Drying on Sustainable Food Production

In many parts of the world, lake drying is caused by water management failures, while the phenomenon is exacerbated by climate change. Lake Urmia in Northern Iran is drying up at such an alarming rate that it is considered to be a dying lake, which has dire consequences for the whole region. While salinization caused by a dying lake is well understood and known to influence the local and regional food production, other potential impacts are as yet unknown. Food production in the Urmia region has predominantly been regionally-oriented and sustainable, particularly in terms of water demand. To explore current and projected impacts of the dying lake on sustainable food production (SFP) we investigated changes in climatic conditions, land use, and land degradation for the period 1990-2020. We examined the environmental impacts of lake drought on SFP through an integrated scenario-based geoinformation framework. The results show that the lake drought has significantly affected food production and has reduced the proportion of SFP over the past three decades. Based on a combination of cellular automata and Markov modelling, the conditions are projected for the next 30 years and are predicted to exacerbate further. To mitigate these issues and support SFP, this research provides some policy recommendations and results for tangible action plans. We consider the modification of cropping patterns towards low water demand crops as one the cheapest and most efficient solutions for reducing the overall agricultural water consumption.