Environmental Regulation and Carbon Emissions: “Forced Emission Reduction” or “Green Paradox”? Empirical Evidence from 272 Cities at or above Prefecture-Level in China

Environmental Regulation and Carbon Emissions: “Forced Emission Reduction” or “Green Paradox”? Empirical Evidence from 272 Cities at or above Prefecture-Level in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Environmental Regulation and Carbon Emissions: “Forced Emission Reduction” or “Green Paradox”? Empirical Evidence from 272 Cities at or above Prefecture-Level in China Guichao Jin, Guoliang Wang, Wenjing Li, Haoxuan Sheng, Yanfei Zhao, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5558948/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As the concept of green development takes deeper root, China’s environmental regulation model, which features the government as the linchpin supplemented by market forces, has emerged as a crucial springboard for driving continuous ecological improvement and building a beautiful nation. In this context, delving into the mechanics and mapping out the long-term road map of how environmental regulation can propel carbon emission cuts is an essential prerequisite for today’s ecological civilization drive. Based on the panel data of 272 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2003 to 2020, this paper uses the composite index method to measure the intensity of urban environmental regulation, and analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution pattern and evolutionary trend of total carbon emissions and environmental regulation intensity respectively. Spatial autoregressive model and mediating effect model are used to investigate the impact and transmission mechanism of environmental regulation on carbon emissions. On the basis of empirical analysis, conclusions are drawn as follows: first, environmental regulation can effectively inhibit carbon emissions, which strongly supports the “forced emission reduction theory”; second, technological progress plays a part of the mediating effect in the impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions, which effectively supports Porter’s hypothesis; third, foreign investment plays a part of the mediating effect in the impact of environmental regulations on carbon emissions, which effectively supports the “pollution halo hypothesis”. Based on the above conclusions, this paper finally puts forward the relevant policy recommendations to achieve the goal of “dual carbon”. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Environmental regulation Carbon emissions Technological progress Foreign investment Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files RawData.zip Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Mar, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 04 Mar, 2025 Editor invited by journal 04 Mar, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 01 Dec, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5558948","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":423885160,"identity":"22a9ef8b-9635-4dc1-86a6-f439cfb0c9d5","order_by":0,"name":"Guichao Jin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Alibaba Business School, Hangzhou Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guichao","middleName":"","lastName":"Jin","suffix":""},{"id":423885161,"identity":"39fc6a7a-7269-4597-a18a-099f3d7b8233","order_by":1,"name":"Guoliang Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gYDBgYbHn72BqK1MIK0pMlI9hwgQQuQOGxjcMOBSA0G5xc2FH6pOc/DcIOB8cPHHGK03HjYYCxz7DYP4+wGZsmZ24jQYnbjYIOxZMNtHmaZA2zMvCRoOcfDJpFArJbzjQ2GHxsO8PAQrcX+BmODMcOxZB4JnoPNxPlFsv/wMcMfNXb29sebD374SIwWBqB7jHnALHAEEQP4DzA//EGk2lEwCkbBKBihAADWazl9WMV5TgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Dianzi University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guoliang","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":423885162,"identity":"901d2306-4174-44d8-98ba-a802b7cb7775","order_by":2,"name":"Wenjing Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Dianzi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenjing","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":423885163,"identity":"c01da79f-1cec-40a5-b0a7-eafa6d573a05","order_by":3,"name":"Haoxuan Sheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Dianzi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haoxuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Sheng","suffix":""},{"id":423885164,"identity":"e6503234-8774-451c-8bf9-150e8dec77dc","order_by":4,"name":"Yanfei Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Dianzi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanfei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":423885165,"identity":"46eb9c57-4529-4547-a392-115d07067076","order_by":5,"name":"Zixuan Huang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hangzhou Dianzi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zixuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-01 14:38:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5558948/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5558948/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-25556-6","type":"published","date":"2025-11-24T15:56:59+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97179333,"identity":"b57bc592-185c-41ac-b259-6fd59e44ecf3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-01 16:14:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":661036,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RevisedmanuscriptEnvironmentalRegulationandcarbonEmissionsforcedemissionreductionorGreenParadox.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5558948/v1_covered_c15a8020-4423-4ed9-acda-e98f3645b2fb.pdf"},{"id":77760304,"identity":"91c049b8-17dd-4c26-8bf8-efd7a78ba15e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-05 09:17:46","extension":"zip","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":815759,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RawData.zip","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5558948/v1/3c1f06073144183c738e6c02.zip"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Environmental Regulation and Carbon Emissions: “Forced Emission Reduction” or “Green Paradox”? 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