Bonds Improve Post Mission Disposal Compliance and the Sustainability of Low Earth Orbit

Bonds Improve Post Mission Disposal Compliance and the Sustainability of Low Earth Orbit | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Bonds Improve Post Mission Disposal Compliance and the Sustainability of Low Earth Orbit Indigo Brownhall, Daniel Kaffine, Darrell Kilpatrick, Miles Lifson, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9138493/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Post-mission disposal (PMD) non-compliance is a major threat to the long-term sustainability of Low Earth Orbit (LEO). From 2010–2024, only 40% of satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits successfully deorbited. With launch rates rising rapidly and large constellations expanding the active population, reducing the number of long-lived derelicts is increasingly urgent. We evaluate an escrow-based PMD performance bond on satellite operators, designed to increase disposal compliance by making non-compliance financially costly while preserving access to orbit. The analysis uses an integrated assessment framework that couples an economic decision-making model for satellite operators with a model for the evolution of the space object populations in LEO, enabling launch decisions and debris risk to co-evolve endogenously over a 25-year horizon. Results show that bonds of $200k per satellite can reduce the mass of derelict satellite per year by more than one-third and increase welfare by up to 27%. Bonds greater than $1 million exhibit diminishing marginal returns. We also examine partial bond adoption and market leakage and find that a bond that only covers 20% of the global market can still achieve meaningful derelict reductions and space sustainability improvements. Broader participation improves both environmental and economic welfare outcomes. Physical sciences/Physics/Space physics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Bondssupplementaryinformation.pdf Supplementary Information and Figures Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9138493","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":610838913,"identity":"ad1155e5-5d57-47f2-b80b-5232b092e7cf","order_by":0,"name":"Indigo 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From 2010–2024, only 40% of satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits successfully deorbited. With launch rates rising rapidly and large constellations expanding the active population, reducing the number of long-lived derelicts is increasingly urgent. We evaluate an escrow-based PMD performance bond on satellite operators, designed to increase disposal compliance by making non-compliance financially costly while preserving access to orbit. The analysis uses an integrated assessment framework that couples an economic decision-making model for satellite operators with a model for the evolution of the space object populations in LEO, enabling launch decisions and debris risk to co-evolve endogenously over a 25-year horizon. Results show that bonds of $200k per satellite can reduce the mass of derelict satellite per year by more than one-third and increase welfare by up to 27%. Bonds greater than $1 million exhibit diminishing marginal returns. We also examine partial bond adoption and market leakage and find that a bond that only covers 20% of the global market can still achieve meaningful derelict reductions and space sustainability improvements. 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