Trends and Forecasts on Prediabetes and Diabetes in Adult and Elderly Population in Turkey

Abstract Aims Diabetes is a chronic disease that limits the quality and duration of life. We aimed to estimate the trends in prediabetes and diabetes between 2010-2020, and the projections to 2023 and 2045 in Turkey. Materials and methods Prediabetes and diabetes estimates were calculated by direct standardization using age/sex-specific data from the previous TURDEP-II survey as reference. The 2010-2020 population demographics were obtained from TurkStat. Comparative age-adjusted diabetes rates were estimated using standard population models of world and Europe. ResultsEstimates depicted that the population (20-84 years) of any degree of glucose intolerance in Turkey increased by approximately 5.3 million (diabetes: 2.2 million and prediabetes: 3.1 million) from 2010 to 2020. While the increase in prediabetes and diabetes rates was 22% and 31.6% in overall population, corresponding increase were 45.2% and 45.6% in the elderly. Notably, diabetes awareness was comparable (54% and 58%). Age-specific prediabetes and diabetes rates were significantly higher in women than in men (diabetes: 14.1% versus 17%; prediabetes: 38.6% versus 30.2%). The comparative age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes to the standard European but not the world population model, showed a higher rate of 19.4%. According to the projections the prevalence of diabetes will reach 15.9% in 2023 and 19.1% in 2045. ConclusionDiabetes has reached epidemic proportions in Turkey and will continue to grow in the coming decades. The fact suggests that there is an urgent need to developing and implementing the country-specific prevention program to halt this increase. Otherwise, the burden of diabetes on social, economic and health services will continue to increase.