A Method for Predicting Ultra-Deep Ground Stress in the Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone of Shunbei Oilfield Based on Coupled Crack Volume and Pore Pressure Parameters with Weakened Nonlinear Higher-Order Disturbances

A Method for Predicting Ultra-Deep Ground Stress in the Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone of Shunbei Oilfield Based on Coupled Crack Volume and Pore Pressure Parameters with Weakened Nonlinear Higher-Order Disturbances | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Method for Predicting Ultra-Deep Ground Stress in the Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone of Shunbei Oilfield Based on Coupled Crack Volume and Pore Pressure Parameters with Weakened Nonlinear Higher-Order Disturbances Shijie Zhu, YaBin Zhang, Bei Zha, XingXing Cao, Lei Pu, Chao Huang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Ordovician No. 6 fault zone reservoir in the Shunbei oilfield exhibits characteristics of ultra-deep burial and high-pressure, high-temperature conditions, with pronounced structural control and significant heterogeneity. This renders traditional in-situ stress prediction methods—based on linear elasticity and anisotropy assumptions—inadequate for accurately characterizing the evolution of carbonate reservoir stiffness and its associated uncertainties. To address this, this study integrates wave impedance inversion with high-confining-pressure granular flow bi-axial tests to establish a common-origin constitutive calibration system for seismic and experimental data. Simultaneously, it introduces fracture volume coefficients and pore pressure coefficients to develop a physically interpretable nonlinear weakening function. This function dynamically corrects elastic coefficients, thereby quantitatively characterizing the nonlinear evolution of reservoir stiffness under coupled fracture-pore pressure interactions. The model incorporates a higher-order derivative constraint mechanism, significantly enhancing response continuity and numerical stability in high-gradient disturbance zones and stiffness discontinuity regions. This effectively suppresses numerical oscillations and divergences commonly observed in complex fracture-dissolution systems. Results demonstrate high concordance between predicted in-situ stresses and measured logging data at three key wells, consistent with regional stress evolution patterns. Sensitivity analysis indicates Young's modulus goodness-of-fit improved from 0.89 to 0.95, mean squared error reduced by 43%, and outlier proportion decreased below 1%, confirming the model's effective control over stiffness discontinuities and numerical instability in high-gradient zones. Overall, this study provides a novel methodology for predicting in-situ stresses in ultra-deep carbonate reservoirs, offering engineering guidance and parameterisation references for scheme deployment in complex fractured karst systems. Shunbei Oilfield Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone Sensitivity Analysis Multi-scale Anisotropic Stress Prediction Nonlinear Weakening Model High-Confining-Pressure Particle Flow Bi-axial Test Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7701320","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":587626999,"identity":"24146da0-6ade-4599-a988-648a4d3f01a9","order_by":0,"name":"Shijie Zhu","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Yangtze University - Wuhan Campus","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shijie","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhu","suffix":""},{"id":587627000,"identity":"179ff2ce-1317-4d39-9162-7d1cee197456","order_by":1,"name":"YaBin Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yangtze University - Wuhan Campus","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"YaBin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":587627001,"identity":"33543aa9-a2af-46d0-bdc2-f20b37c7fe6b","order_by":2,"name":"Bei Zha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zha","suffix":""},{"id":587627002,"identity":"a8656942-b2ff-450c-9ff8-e57f5c694a62","order_by":3,"name":"XingXing Cao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yangtze University - Wuhan Campus","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"XingXing","middleName":"","lastName":"Cao","suffix":""},{"id":587627003,"identity":"6c890751-2e1f-4276-ae13-e4e938bb3ec0","order_by":4,"name":"Lei Pu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yangtze University - Wuhan Campus","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lei","middleName":"","lastName":"Pu","suffix":""},{"id":587627004,"identity":"26fe47d1-c44e-409d-af22-da77959a0d24","order_by":5,"name":"Chao Huang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chao","middleName":"","lastName":"Huang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-24 08:38:54","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102398158,"identity":"a22b393d-ee3a-4400-be74-d654c9b2142c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-11 10:21:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3443177,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptorigin1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7701320/v1_covered_7c1996dd-2e3d-4534-bde8-1d24a51da291.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Method for Predicting Ultra-Deep Ground Stress in the Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone of Shunbei Oilfield Based on Coupled Crack Volume and Pore Pressure Parameters with Weakened Nonlinear Higher-Order Disturbances","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Shunbei Oilfield Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone, Sensitivity Analysis, Multi-scale Anisotropic Stress Prediction, Nonlinear Weakening Model, High-Confining-Pressure Particle Flow Bi-axial Test","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Ordovician No. 6 fault zone reservoir in the Shunbei oilfield exhibits characteristics of ultra-deep burial and high-pressure, high-temperature conditions, with pronounced structural control and significant heterogeneity. This renders traditional in-situ stress prediction methods\u0026mdash;based on linear elasticity and anisotropy assumptions\u0026mdash;inadequate for accurately characterizing the evolution of carbonate reservoir stiffness and its associated uncertainties. To address this, this study integrates wave impedance inversion with high-confining-pressure granular flow bi-axial tests to establish a common-origin constitutive calibration system for seismic and experimental data. Simultaneously, it introduces fracture volume coefficients and pore pressure coefficients to develop a physically interpretable nonlinear weakening function. This function dynamically corrects elastic coefficients, thereby quantitatively characterizing the nonlinear evolution of reservoir stiffness under coupled fracture-pore pressure interactions. The model incorporates a higher-order derivative constraint mechanism, significantly enhancing response continuity and numerical stability in high-gradient disturbance zones and stiffness discontinuity regions. This effectively suppresses numerical oscillations and divergences commonly observed in complex fracture-dissolution systems. Results demonstrate high concordance between predicted in-situ stresses and measured logging data at three key wells, consistent with regional stress evolution patterns. Sensitivity analysis indicates Young's modulus goodness-of-fit improved from 0.89 to 0.95, mean squared error reduced by 43%, and outlier proportion decreased below 1%, confirming the model's effective control over stiffness discontinuities and numerical instability in high-gradient zones. Overall, this study provides a novel methodology for predicting in-situ stresses in ultra-deep carbonate reservoirs, offering engineering guidance and parameterisation references for scheme deployment in complex fractured karst systems.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"A Method for Predicting Ultra-Deep Ground Stress in the Ordovician No. 6 Fault Zone of Shunbei Oilfield Based on Coupled Crack Volume and Pore Pressure Parameters with Weakened Nonlinear Higher-Order Disturbances","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-10 16:44:13","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7701320/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0eb53427-c751-4005-9f4c-7853b22926e5","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 10th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-10T16:44:14+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-10 16:44:13","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7701320","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7701320","identity":"rs-7701320","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}