Adaptive short term COVID-19 prediction for India

In this paper, a data-driven adaptive model for infection of COVID-19 is formulated to predict the confirmed total cases and active cases of an area over 4 weeks. The parameter of the model is always updated based on daily observations. It is found that the short term prediction of up to 3-4 weeks can be possible with good accuracy. Detailed analysis of predicted value and the actual value of confirmed total cases and active cases for India from 1 st June to 3 rd July is provided. Prediction over 7, 14, 21, 28 days has the accuracy about 0.73% ± 1.97%, 1.92% ± 2.95%, 4.34% ± 3.91%, 6.40% ± 9.26% of the actual value of confirmed total cases. Similarly, the 7, 14, 21, 28 days prediction has the accuracy about 1.24% ± 6.57%, 3.04% ± 10.00%, 6.33% ± 16.12%, 10.20% ± 24.14% of the actual value of confirmed active cases.