Covid-19 impact on food insecurity in Uganda: a dynamic analysis

Lockdowns were used as a tool to avoid excessive social contact and thus limit the spread of Covid-19. However, the true welfare effects of this policy action are still being determined. This paper studies the impact of these lockdowns on the food security outcomes of households in Uganda using a dynamic probit model. We find that the most consequential determinant of whether a household’s food security was severely impacted by the lockdown was the initial status of whether a family was food insecure to begin with. Also, an increase in a household’s economic resources (log consumption per person) significantly influences a reduction in the probability of being severely food insecure. Over time, this creates a wedge of greater inequality between the food security of households who were initially food secure and those who were not. This is despite the use of government cash transfers which have turned out to be ineffective. Highlights A dynamic probit model is used to assess the influence Covid lockdowns have had on food security Households who were initially severely food insecure experienced greater levels of food insecurity post-lockdown, than those who were not. Increased command of economic resources reduces the probability of severe food security Contemporaneous government transfers have not made a significant impact on reducing the probability of severe food insecurity