Establishment of a Model for Predicting the Recurrence of Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis in A Short Period of Time

Abstract Background Little is known about what factors affect recurrence of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) in a short-term. We performed a retrospective study of patients with RAP, and used non-invasive and quantitative biomarkers to establish a predictive model, so as to provide a basis for effectively predicting and preventing recurrence of RAP. MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of 261 RAP patients admitted to Dazhou Central Hospital from January 2008 through December 2018. The short-term group (n=138) and the long-term group (n=123) were compared. Eight clinical patient characteristics and past medical history were collected from admission records. The prediction model was developed by independent risk factors，and the model to predict the effects were confirmed by the area under the ROC cure．ResultsThe study found that β2-microglobulin (β2-MG) (OR, 0.534; 95% CI, 0.329 to 0.866) and C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.002 to 1.017) were the independent predictors of short-term recurrence. Based on these Independent risk factors，a predicted model for short-term recurrence in RAP patients was constructed．The model was L=β2-MG -0.016BCRP. The AUC for model was 0.651 and the optimal cut-off value was 0.7414, with a sensitivity of 65.9%and a specificity of 63.4%.ConclusionsA new biomarker-based model for predicting risk of short-term recurrence in patients with RAP was satisfactorily developed. The model utilizing β2-MG and CRP may assist physicians in patient education and decision-making when preventing from recurrent attacks with RAP.