Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Uganda: A NARDL Perspective

Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Uganda: A NARDL Perspective | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Uganda: A NARDL Perspective Kyewaalabye Mudasiru, William Epiaka This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9492222/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda using annual data from 1983 to 2020 obtained from the Uganda Revenue Authority and the World Bank. Employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, the results reveal a mixture of I(0) and I(1) variables, justifying the use of the NARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The findings confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables and demonstrate significant asymmetric effects of fiscal policy, particularly government expenditure and tax revenue on economic growth in the long run, while short-run asymmetry is mainly observed in tax revenue, with overall fiscal responses appearing symmetric. These results imply that positive and negative fiscal shocks have differing impacts on growth over time, leading to the recommendation that fiscal policy be strategically directed toward productive investments, improved private sector support, and the creation of an enabling environment to accelerate sustainable economic growth and facilitate the attainment of middle-income status. Fiscal Policy Economic Growth Asymmetric Effects NARDL Uganda Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9492222","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627521397,"identity":"77751717-bc07-4d6b-8cd7-9361fd19248f","order_by":0,"name":"Kyewaalabye Mudasiru","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Kampala Capital City Authority","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kyewaalabye","middleName":"","lastName":"Mudasiru","suffix":""},{"id":627521398,"identity":"35e7e36d-d7d1-4a9a-a0a6-91ff140bea79","order_by":1,"name":"William Epiaka","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kampala Capital City Authority","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"William","middleName":"","lastName":"Epiaka","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-22 07:10:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9492222/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9492222/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107797685,"identity":"f8ee166b-8595-4900-b16b-66f32ac3774d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-25 16:09:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":443737,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RESEARCHPAPERMUDAWILLIAM.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9492222/v1_covered_bb21d462-053f-4ebb-8c15-722fd8d18ba5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Uganda: A NARDL Perspective","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth, Asymmetric Effects, NARDL, Uganda","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9492222/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9492222/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda using annual data from 1983 to 2020 obtained from the Uganda Revenue Authority and the World Bank. 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