Multiple Pathways Towards Climate and Ecological Restoration

Multiple Pathways Towards Climate and Ecological Restoration | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Multiple Pathways Towards Climate and Ecological Restoration Bonnie G Waring, Robert Lempert, Flannery C Dolan, Kanishka Narayan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8272870/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the face of the global polycrisis, optimistic scenarios help expand the space of possible futures and guide effective goal‑setting; however, most fail to envision large-scale ecological restoration. This study develops a set of optimistic scenarios designed to illustrate how diverse actors and levels of collective action could restore ecosystems and sequester carbon while maintaining food security. These scenarios envision a top-down policy of setting aside large areas of land for conservation, a reduction of the land necessary for food production through increases in agricultural productivity and changes in diet, and a large-scale adoption of agricultural practices consistent with carbon sequestration and biodiversity objectives. We quantify these narratives with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and find that all scenarios show large ecological and climate improvements relative to a reference case, with those incorporating regional or global conservation incentives achieving net‑negative AFOLU emissions by 2100 that are consistent with limiting warming below 2°C. While trade‑offs emerge with resulting increases to food prices, they can be offset through relatively modest coordinated financial support. Together, these optimistic scenarios reveal multiple policy, technological, and behavioral pathways whereby broad cooperation among actors delivers transformative, synergistic benefits for climate and ecological restoration and human well‑being. climate mitigation land use nature-based solutions reforestation restoration sustainable development goals climate restoration ecological restoration Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialsRestorationManuscript3Dec2025.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8272870","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":555081081,"identity":"fa22ac8b-c46e-47bb-8cd6-10a13d88a7c2","order_by":0,"name":"Bonnie G 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